RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 8 games since Sep 11, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.9
≈ in line with the league average (11.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
105.0
≈ in line with the league average (98.3)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.1
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 136 league games, 8 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Small sample: under 15 games. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
IND offensevsLV defense
IND offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · LV defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
−0.16
#31
+0.14
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
−0.18
#30
−0.05
Stronger#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 6 places
33%
#29
41%
Stronger#23
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#29slight
69%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#28slight
4.2%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.94
#32
0.76
slight#31
LV offensevsIND defense
LV offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · IND defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 2 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
+0.03
#15
+0.02
#15
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#13
−0.09
slight#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 9 places
40%
#17
38%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26slight
68%
#31
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.· even
5.4%
#8
7.2%
#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#17slight
1.18
#21
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
IND offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.16#31▼
+0.14#31
Pass success rate
42%#25
49%#29
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.1%#30▼
9.4%#29▼
Yards / dropback
5.2#31
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.4
7.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
7%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−1.3#20▼
+0.9#21
YAC / completionfavors LV
4.5#29
5.2#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
8.8%#28
4.2%#30▼
Scramble rate
3.2%
3.8%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.3%#31▲
1.0%#31▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 25 · R 36
L 38 · M 20 · R 42
LV offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:IND scores 53% · allows 51%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
INDLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
INDLV
4-12-1
Record
6-11
17.0
Points for / game
23.2
25.1
Points against / game
24.6
2-6 / 2-6
Home / road
4-4 / 2-7
L L L L L
Last 5
L L L W L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
INDLV
-0.154
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.010
-0.019
EPA / play allowed
0.058
227
Pass yards / game
246
110
Rush yards / game
121
226
Pass yards allowed
254
124
Rush yards allowed
123
1.7 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 0.9
3.5 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 1.6
16.7
First downs / game
18.5
47
Penalty yards / game
55
−3.3 · #41 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.9 · #19 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
INDLV
8-12 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-10 · 47%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), IND 34 games, LV 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
6INDseriesLV3
Avg total points
52.1
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). IND have won the last 3.
2025LV 6 at IND 40IND
2023LV 20 at IND 23IND
2022IND 25 at LV 20IND
2021LV 23 at IND 20LV
2020IND 44 at LV 27IND
2019LV 31 at IND 24LV
2018IND 42 at LV 28IND
2016IND 25 at LV 33LV
All 9 meetings
2013LV 17 at IND 21IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael PittmanWR14124.4%
Parris CampbellWR9115.7%
Alec PierceWR7813.5%
Jonathan TaylorRB406.9%
Jelani WoodsTE406.9%
Kylen GransonTE406.9%
Deon JacksonRB345.9%
Mo Alie-CoxTE284.8%
Nyheim HinesRB284.8%
Ashton DulinWR223.8%
Mike StrachanWR91.6%
Jordan WilkinsRB81.4%
Phillip LindsayRB81.4%
Dezmon PatmonWR61.0%
Zack MossRB50.9%
Keke CouteeWR10.2%
Davante AdamsWR18032.3%
Mack HollinsWR9416.8%
Josh JacobsRB6411.5%
Foster MoreauTE549.7%
Hunter RenfrowWR509.0%
Darren WallerTE437.7%
Ameer AbdullahRB325.7%
Keelan ColeWR213.8%
Brandon BoldenRB91.6%
Jakob JohnsonRB61.1%
Jesper HorstedTE40.7%
DJ TurnerWR10.2%
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
