RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 29, 2020
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.9
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
104.1
≈ in line with the league average (97.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.1
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 500 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LV offensevsNO defense
LV offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#15
−0.07
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#13Stronger
−0.04
#20
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#17Stronger
41%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
49%
#26
50%
Stronger#7
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#8
7.9%
slight#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 15 places
1.24
#17Stronger
0.76
#32
NO offensevsLV defense
NO offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
+0.01
#17Stronger
+0.14
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#27
−0.05
Stronger#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#15Stronger
41%
#23
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
52%
#22Stronger
69%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.8%
#20Stronger
4.2%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#28slight
0.76
#31
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LV offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.03#15▼
−0.07#4▼
Pass success ratefavors NO
43%#21
40%#1▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NO
9.1%#7
5.8%#1
Yards / dropbackfavors NO
6.4#11
5.5#3
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
9.1
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
15%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
49%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−2.2#27
−4.9#1▼
YAC / completion
5.0#18
5.0#16
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.4%#8▲
7.9%#4▲
Scramble rate
3.9%
4.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.9%#28▲
1.3%#30▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 27 · R 35
L 39 · M 19 · R 42
NO offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.01#17▼
+0.14#31
Pass success ratefavors NO
49%#7
49%#29
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NO
8.0%#16
9.4%#29▼
Yards / dropbackfavors NO
6.7#7
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.9
7.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
47%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+1.4#6▼
+0.9#21
YAC / completion
4.8#22▲
5.2#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NO
6.8%#20▲
4.2%#30▼
Scramble rate
2.5%
3.8%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
2.7%#24
1.0%#31▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 19 · R 49
L 38 · M 20 · R 42
Las Vegas Raiders · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LV scores 44% · allows 47%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LVNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LVNO
6-11
Record
7-10
23.2
Points for / game
19.4
24.6
Points against / game
20.3
4-4 / 2-7
Home / road
4-5 / 3-5
L L L W L
Last 5
L W W W L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LVNO
0.010
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.026
0.058
EPA / play allowed
-0.045
246
Pass yards / game
233
121
Rush yards / game
117
254
Pass yards allowed
201
123
Rush yards allowed
130
1.1 / 0.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.2
2.1 / 1.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 2.8
18.5
First downs / game
16.7
55
Penalty yards / game
49
+1.9 · #19 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.1 · #40 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LVNO
9-10 · 47%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-13 · 35%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), LV 35 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4LVseriesNO2
Avg total points
50.5
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history). LV have won the last 2.
2026LV 35 at NO 27LV
2024LV 25 at NO 10LV
2022LV 0 at NO 24NO
2020NO 24 at LV 34LV
2016LV 35 at NO 34LV
2012NO 38 at LV 17NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Davante AdamsWR18032.3%
Mack HollinsWR9416.8%
Josh JacobsRB6411.5%
Foster MoreauTE549.7%
Hunter RenfrowWR509.0%
Darren WallerTE437.7%
Ameer AbdullahRB325.7%
Keelan ColeWR213.8%
Brandon BoldenRB91.6%
Jakob JohnsonRB61.1%
Jesper HorstedTE40.7%
DJ TurnerWR10.2%
Chris OlaveWR11924.1%
Alvin KamaraRB7715.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE6513.2%
Jarvis LandryWR397.9%
Rashid ShaheedWR346.9%
Marquez CallawayWR326.5%
Tre'Quan SmithWR275.5%
Michael ThomasWR224.5%
Adam TrautmanTE224.5%
Mark IngramRB183.7%
Taysom HillTE132.6%
Kevin WhiteWR51.0%
David JohnsonRB40.8%
Keith KirkwoodWR40.8%
Adam PrenticeFB30.6%
Deonte HartyWR20.4%
Tony JonesRB20.4%
Nick VannettTE20.4%
Eno BenjaminRB10.2%
Latavius MurrayRB10.2%
Dwayne WashingtonRB10.2%
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
