RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 4 games since Sep 11, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
106.3
≈ in line with the league average (97.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.1
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 64 league games, 4 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Small sample: under 15 games. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
PHI offensevsARI defense
PHI offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#6Stronger
+0.05
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.11
#1Stronger
−0.04
#21
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
48%
#3Stronger
43%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
69%
#3Stronger
65%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.7%
#17Stronger
5.5%
#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#5Stronger
1.18
#20
ARI offensevsPHI defense
ARI offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · PHI defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 27 places
−0.10
#28
−0.09
Stronger#1
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
−0.07
#23
−0.02
#23
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#26
39%
Stronger#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#11slight
56%
#16
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.2%
#16
10.5%
Stronger#1
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#27
1.55
Stronger#4
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
PHI offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors PHI
+0.13#6▲
+0.05#21
Pass success ratefavors PHI
46%#14
51%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
10.2%#2▼
6.4%#4
Yards / dropbackfavors PHI
7.0#4
6.3#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.4
5.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
8%
Short throws (≤5 air)
49%
59%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors PHI
+2.3#5▲
+1.0#22▼
YAC / completionfavors PHI
5.6#6
6.2#31
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors PHI
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:PHI scores 59% · allows 42%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PHIARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
PHI9 games
Scored7.6
Allowed10.6
Pass share44%
34–54% · 236 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
PHI6 games
Scored8.0
Allowed12.2
Pass share56%
46–66% · 171 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
PHI2 games · small sample
Scored12.5
Allowed13.0
Pass share71%
63 plays · too few games for a range
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PHIat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.4
3.9Q1
7.8
4.2Q2
12.2scored8.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.1Q3
4.4
8.1Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PHIARI
16-4
Record
4-13
29.1
Points for / game
20.0
19.8
Points against / game
26.4
9-3 / 7-1
Home / road
1-8 / 3-5
L W W W L
Last 5
L L L L L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
PHIARI
0.125
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.085
-0.073
EPA / play allowed
0.014
247
Pass yards / game
233
152
Rush yards / game
110
198
Pass yards allowed
246
121
Rush yards allowed
119
0.8 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.3 / 1.4
2.4 / 3.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.7 / 2.1
21.1
First downs / game
17.9
39
Penalty yards / game
54
+8.1 · #2 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #29 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PHIARI
3-9 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-12 · 43%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), PHI 38 games, ARI 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3PHIseriesARI5
Avg total points
47.8
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2023ARI 35 at PHI 31ARI
2022PHI 20 at ARI 17PHI
2020PHI 26 at ARI 33ARI
2017ARI 7 at PHI 34PHI
2015ARI 40 at PHI 17ARI
2014PHI 20 at ARI 24ARI
2013ARI 21 at PHI 24PHI
2012PHI 6 at ARI 27ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
A.J. BrownWR16728.4%
DeVonta SmithWR15826.9%
Dallas GoedertTE8714.8%
Quez WatkinsWR549.2%
Kenny GainwellRB386.5%
Miles SandersRB284.8%
Zach PascalWR233.9%
Jack StollTE152.6%
Grant CalcaterraTE91.5%
Boston ScottRB71.2%
Noah TogiaiTE10.2%
Marquise BrownWR10716.9%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9615.1%
Zach ErtzTE6910.9%
Greg DortchWR6410.1%
James ConnerRB589.1%
Rondale MooreWR568.8%
A.J. GreenWR477.4%
Trey McBrideTE396.2%
Eno BenjaminRB335.2%
Robbie ChosenWR172.7%
Andre BaccelliaWR101.6%
Darrel WilliamsRB81.3%
Corey ClementRB71.1%
Stephen AndersonTE71.1%
Keaontay IngramRB50.8%
Andy IsabellaWR50.8%
Maxx WilliamsTE30.5%
Pharoh CooperWR20.3%
Ty'Son WilliamsRB10.2%
Philadelphia Eagles2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
