RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 18, 2020
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
91.8
≈ in line with the league average (98.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsLAC defense
JAX offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · LAC defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.10
#7slight
−0.04
#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#19Stronger
+0.07
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.· even
42%
#10
38%
#10
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#13
55%
slight#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.3%
#5Stronger
6.8%
#12
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 20 places
1.47
#29
1.39
Stronger#9
LAC offensevsJAX defense
LAC offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#13Stronger
+0.06
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#17
−0.11
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
44%
#8Stronger
44%
#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#18Stronger
63%
#25
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 22 places
5.1%
#6Stronger
5.0%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#4Stronger
1.37
#10
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXLAC
10-9
Record
10-8
23.9
Points for / game
23.4
21.4
Points against / game
23.1
6-3 / 4-6
Home / road
5-3 / 5-5
L W W W W
Last 5
L L W W W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXLAC
0.046
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.018
-0.004
EPA / play allowed
0.019
245
Pass yards / game
281
125
Rush yards / game
88
250
Pass yards allowed
221
114
Rush yards allowed
144
1.2 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.8
1.7 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.3
19.2
First downs / game
19.0
39
Penalty yards / game
38
+4.1 · #11 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.3 · #15 of 52
2022 season to date · 18–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXLAC
11-18 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-7 · 36%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), JAX 36 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4JAXseriesLAC6
Avg total points
49.5
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). JAX have won the last 3.
2025LAC 6 at JAX 35JAX
2022LAC 30 at JAX 31PlayoffsJAX
2022JAX 38 at LAC 10JAX
2020JAX 29 at LAC 39LAC
2019LAC 45 at JAX 10LAC
2017LAC 17 at JAX 20JAX
2016JAX 14 at LAC 38LAC
2015LAC 31 at JAX 25LAC
All 10 meetings
2014JAX 14 at LAC 33LAC
2013LAC 24 at JAX 6LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Christian KirkWR16124.5%
Zay JonesWR14121.4%
Evan EngramTE11517.5%
Marvin JonesWR9013.7%
Travis EtienneRB497.4%
Jamal AgnewWR345.2%
JaMycal HastyRB284.3%
Dan ArnoldTE132.0%
James RobinsonRB111.7%
Chris ManhertzTE81.2%
Luke FarrellTE40.6%
Tim JonesWR40.6%
Austin EkelerRB13118.0%
Josh PalmerWR11315.5%
Keenan AllenWR10214.0%
Gerald EverettTE9513.0%
Mike WilliamsWR9312.8%
DeAndre CarterWR689.3%
Joshua KelleyRB263.6%
Michael BandyWR212.9%
Tre' McKittyTE202.7%
Donald ParhamTE172.3%
Sony MichelRB131.8%
Zander HorvathRB81.1%
Stone SmarttTE50.7%
Richard RodgersTE40.5%
Jalen GuytonWR40.5%
Isaiah SpillerRB30.4%
Jason MooreWR20.3%
Justin HerbertQB20.3%
Larry Rountree IIIRB20.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
