RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 20, 2020
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
102.0
≈ in line with the league average (98.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 554 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
ATL offensevsLAR defense
ATL offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.02
#20slight
+0.07
#25
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.02
#3Stronger
−0.07
#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
42%
#9Stronger
41%
#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
56%
#15
44%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.6%
#25
6.2%
Stronger#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#10Stronger
1.24
#18
LAR offensevsATL defense
LAR offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 0 · 2 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
−0.11
#30
+0.13
#30
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#18Stronger
+0.01
#25
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
39%
#18Stronger
47%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
56%
#17
56%
#17
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
9.7%
#31slight
3.5%
#32
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#23slight
1.00
#25
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
ATL offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.02#20▲
+0.07#25▼
Pass success ratefavors ATL
45%#17
49%#28
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors LAR
7.8%#18
7.3%#10
Yards / dropback
6.1#19
6.5#24
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
9.8
6.6
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
16%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
40%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.8#16▲
+0.7#20▼
YAC / completion
4.8#21
5.3#26
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAR
7.6%#25▼
6.2%#19▲
Scramble rate
7.8%
4.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#13▼
2.9%#9▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 25 · R 37
L 43 · M 20 · R 38
LAR offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.11#30
+0.13#30▼
Pass success ratefavors LAR
43%#20
50%#30
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.2%#27▲
9.0%#25▼
Yards / dropback
5.3#30
6.8#28▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.0
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
58%
50%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.2#28▲
+1.1#24▼
YAC / completion
5.2#11
4.8#9
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
9.7%#31
3.5%#32▼
Scramble rate
3.8%
3.2%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.8%#25▼
1.8%#25▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 17 · R 45
L 34 · M 23 · R 43
Atlanta Falcons · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ATL scores 58% · allows 46%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLLAR
7-10
Record
5-12
21.5
Points for / game
18.1
22.7
Points against / game
22.6
6-3 / 1-7
Home / road
4-5 / 1-7
W W L L L
Last 5
L L W L W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLLAR
0.023
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.085
0.081
EPA / play allowed
0.008
172
Pass yards / game
206
160
Rush yards / game
98
241
Pass yards allowed
241
130
Rush yards allowed
115
1.0 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.5
2.2 / 1.2
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 2.2
17.6
First downs / game
15.9
35
Penalty yards / game
39
+1.4 · #22 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.9 · #39 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ATLLAR
6-17 · 26%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), ATL 34 games, LAR 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4ATLseriesLAR2
Avg total points
51.0
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025LAR 24 at ATL 27ATL
2022ATL 27 at LAR 31LAR
2019LAR 37 at ATL 10LAR
2017ATL 26 at LAR 13PlayoffsATL
2016ATL 42 at LAR 14ATL
2013LAR 24 at ATL 31ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Drake LondonWR11729.3%
Olamide ZaccheausWR6115.3%
Kyle PittsTE5914.8%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB317.8%
Damiere ByrdWR235.8%
MyCole PruittTE215.3%
KhaDarel HodgeWR205.0%
Tyler AllgeierRB174.3%
Avery WilliamsRB143.5%
Anthony FirkserTE133.3%
Parker HesseTE112.8%
Bryan EdwardsWR51.3%
Feleipe FranksTE20.5%
Keith SmithFB20.5%
Caleb HuntleyRB20.5%
Josh AliWR10.3%
Frank DarbyWR10.3%
Tyler HigbeeTE10820.9%
Cooper KuppWR9819.0%
Ben SkowronekWR6111.8%
Allen RobinsonWR5210.1%
Van JeffersonWR448.5%
Tutu AtwellWR356.8%
Brandon PowellWR326.2%
Darrell HendersonRB224.3%
Cam AkersRB183.5%
Kyren WilliamsRB122.3%
Brycen HopkinsTE112.1%
Malcolm BrownRB61.2%
Ronnie RiversRB51.0%
Lance McCutcheonWR51.0%
Austin TrammellWR40.8%
Kendall BlantonTE20.4%
Jacob HarrisWR10.2%
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
