RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
John Parry
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
New England Patriots · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NE scores 61% · allows 47%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NELARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NE11 games
Scored8.8
Allowed8.9
Pass share48%
42–54% · 303 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NE4 games
Scored11.5
Allowed5.8
Pass share46%
30–62% · 145 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NE2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed20.5
Pass share72%
68 plays · too few games for a range
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
8.8
5.9Q2
14.7scored8.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.7
4.2Q3
5.6
5.3Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NELAR
14-5
Record
15-4
27.7
Points for / game
30.8
20.4
Points against / game
23.3
9-0 / 5-5
Home / road
8-2 / 7-2
W W W W W
Last 5
L W W W W
2018 season only (not a rolling window) · 19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NELAR
0.092
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.120
-0.021
EPA / play allowed
-0.004
282
Pass yards / game
287
133
Rush yards / game
139
265
Pass yards allowed
257
101
Rush yards allowed
116
0.9 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.9
1.2 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 2.4
22.0
First downs / game
22.6
47
Penalty yards / game
55
+6.1 · #7 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.3 · #10 of 46
2018 season to date · 19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NELAR
1-0 · 100%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-4 · 43%
Last two seasons (2017–2018), NE 38 games, LAR 36. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3NEseriesLAR2
Avg total points
36.2
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 2.
2024LAR 28 at NE 22LAR
2020NE 3 at LAR 24LAR
2018NE 13 vs LAR 3Super BowlNE
2016LAR 10 at NE 26NE
2012NE 45 vs LAR 7NE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
James WhiteRB15022.0%
Julian EdelmanWR14321.0%
Rob GronkowskiTE9113.4%
Chris HoganWR7310.7%
Josh GordonWR6810.0%
Phillip DorsettWR507.3%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB355.1%
Rex BurkheadRB274.0%
James DevelinFB182.6%
Sony MichelRB142.1%
Jacob HollisterTE50.7%
Dwayne AllenTE40.6%
Riley McCarronWR10.1%
Tom BradyQB10.1%
Jeremy HillRB10.1%
Robert WoodsWR15924.7%
Brandin CooksWR14422.3%
Todd GurleyRB8813.6%
Josh ReynoldsWR7111.0%
Gerald EverettTE578.8%
Cooper KuppWR558.5%
Tyler HigbeeTE426.5%
C.J. AndersonRB111.7%
Malcolm BrownRB71.1%
Nick WilliamsWR30.5%
John KellyRB30.5%
KhaDarel HodgeWR30.5%
Pharoh CooperWR10.2%
Johnny MundtTE10.2%
New England Patriots2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
