RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Peter Morelli
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Cincinnati Bengals · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CIN scores 49% · allows 44%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CININDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CIN7 games
Scored14.1
Allowed15.6
Pass share53%
46–60% · 217 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CIN4 games
Scored16.5
Allowed14.0
Pass share67%
52–82% · 120 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed15.3
Pass share72%
65–78% · 209 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CINat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
4.6Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.9scored11.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.5
5.9Q3
7.1
9.2Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CININD
6-10
Record
11-7
23.0
Points for / game
25.9
28.4
Points against / game
21.2
4-4 / 2-6
Home / road
6-2 / 5-5
L L W L L
Last 5
L W W W W
2018 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CININD
-0.009
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.066
0.108
EPA / play allowed
-0.002
223
Pass yards / game
279
105
Rush yards / game
111
287
Pass yards allowed
253
138
Rush yards allowed
106
0.9 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.3 / 1.8
2.3 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
1.2 / 2.5
17.1
First downs / game
20.6
60
Penalty yards / game
57
+2.1 · #21 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.1 · #12 of 46
2018 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CININD
4-15 · 21%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-18 · 22%
Last two seasons (2017–2018), CIN 32 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4CINseriesIND3
Avg total points
49.0
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2023IND 14 at CIN 34CIN
2020CIN 27 at IND 31IND
2018CIN 34 at IND 23CIN
2017IND 23 at CIN 24CIN
2014CIN 10 at IND 26PlayoffsIND
2014CIN 0 at IND 27IND
2013IND 28 at CIN 42CIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tyler BoydWR10820.5%
A.J. GreenWR7714.6%
C.J. UzomahTE6412.1%
John RossWR5811.0%
Joe MixonRB5510.4%
Giovani BernardRB489.1%
Alex EricksonWR295.5%
Cody CoreWR285.3%
Tyler EifertTE193.6%
Auden TateWR122.3%
Mark WaltonRB81.5%
Matt LengelTE81.5%
Tyler KroftTE61.1%
Josh MaloneWR50.9%
Jordan FranksTE30.6%
T.Y. HiltonWR14120.1%
Eric EbronTE12517.9%
Chester RogersWR8311.9%
Nyheim HinesRB8111.6%
Zach PascalWR527.4%
Ryan GrantWR527.4%
Dontrelle InmanWR476.7%
Jack DoyleTE334.7%
Marlon MackRB294.1%
Jordan WilkinsRB182.6%
Mo Alie-CoxTE142.0%
Erik SwoopeTE101.4%
Marcus JohnsonWR81.1%
Ryan HewittTE30.4%
Robert TurbinRB20.3%
Andrew LuckQB20.3%
Cincinnati Bengals2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
