RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Bill Vinovich
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Pittsburgh Steelers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:PIT scores 49% · allows 44%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
PIT8 games
Scored11.0
Allowed14.4
Pass share57%
50–65% · 213 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
PIT3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share52%
42–63% · 94 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
PIT6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed10.3
Pass share66%
62–70% · 172 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.8
4.1Q1
6.6
6.1Q2
10.4scored10.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.8Q3
7.0
9.4Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PITHOU
13-4
Record
4-12
26.4
Points for / game
21.1
20.8
Points against / game
27.3
6-3 / 7-1
Home / road
3-5 / 1-7
L W W L W
Last 5
L L L L L
2017 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
PITHOU
0.055
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.081
-0.016
EPA / play allowed
-0.001
295
Pass yards / game
228
103
Rush yards / game
115
225
Pass yards allowed
250
109
Rush yards allowed
109
1.1 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.5
1.5 / 3.3
Sacks allowed / made
3.4 / 2.0
20.1
First downs / game
16.6
54
Penalty yards / game
66
+6.3 · #7 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.6 · #39 of 47
2017 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PITHOU
2-3 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-17 · 23%
Last two seasons (2016–2017), PIT 36 games, HOU 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3PITseriesHOU2
Avg total points
42.8
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). HOU have won the last 2.
2025HOU 30 at PIT 6PlayoffsHOU
2023PIT 6 at HOU 30HOU
2020HOU 21 at PIT 28PIT
2017PIT 34 at HOU 6PIT
2014HOU 23 at PIT 30PIT
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Antonio BrownWR17427.1%
Le'Veon BellRB12018.7%
Martavis BryantWR8813.7%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR8413.1%
Jesse JamesTE6410.0%
Eli RogersWR416.4%
Vance McDonaldTE406.2%
Justin HunterWR101.6%
Xavier GrimbleTE101.6%
Darrius Heyward-BeyWR40.6%
Roosevelt NixFB30.5%
Fitzgerald ToussaintRB30.5%
James ConnerRB10.2%
DeAndre HopkinsWR17433.7%
Bruce EllingtonWR5711.0%
Stephen AndersonTE5210.1%
Will FullerWR509.7%
Lamar MillerRB458.7%
Braxton MillerWR295.6%
Ryan GriffinTE265.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE224.3%
Tyler ErvinRB112.1%
Andre EllingtonRB91.7%
Alfred BlueRB91.7%
D'Onta ForemanRB81.6%
DeAndrew WhiteWR71.4%
Cobi HamiltonWR61.2%
Chris ThompsonWR61.2%
Jay ProschFB40.8%
Ryan MalleckTE10.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
