RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Carl Cheffers
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Chicago Bears · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CHI scores 39% · allows 53%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHINOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CHI5 games
Scored15.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share37%
32–41% · 172 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CHI5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed9.0
Pass share48%
42–54% · 182 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CHI7 games
Scored17.9
Allowed11.0
Pass share64%
60–69% · 257 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
6.4
3.6Q1
3.9
8.1Q2
10.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.2
3.7Q3
9.6
6.3Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CHINO
5-11
Record
12-6
16.5
Points for / game
27.9
20.0
Points against / game
21.2
3-5 / 2-6
Home / road
8-1 / 4-5
L W L W L
Last 5
L W L W W
2017 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CHINO
-0.104
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.111
-0.039
EPA / play allowed
-0.027
193
Pass yards / game
278
112
Rush yards / game
122
228
Pass yards allowed
253
108
Rush yards allowed
111
1.1 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 2.2
2.4 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.3 / 2.7
14.8
First downs / game
19.7
59
Penalty yards / game
64
−3.6 · #31 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.7 · #5 of 47
2017 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CHINO
6-19 · 24%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2016–2017), CHI 32 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1CHIseriesNO7
Avg total points
42.9
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025NO 14 at CHI 26CHI
2023CHI 17 at NO 24NO
2020CHI 9 at NO 21PlayoffsNO
2020NO 26 at CHI 23NO
2019NO 36 at CHI 25NO
2017CHI 12 at NO 20NO
2014NO 31 at CHI 15NO
2013NO 26 at CHI 18NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kendall WrightWR9119.4%
Tarik CohenRB7115.2%
Josh BellamyWR469.8%
Dontrelle InmanWR408.5%
Zach MillerTE357.5%
Jordan HowardRB326.8%
Dion SimsTE296.2%
Benny CunninghamRB265.6%
Daniel BrownTE204.3%
Deonte ThompsonWR183.8%
Markus WheatonWR173.6%
Tre McBrideWR153.2%
Adam ShaheenTE143.0%
Tanner GentryWR61.3%
Michael BurtonFB40.9%
Kevin WhiteWR40.9%
Michael ThomasWR17128.5%
Alvin KamaraRB11018.3%
Ted GinnWR8714.5%
Mark IngramRB7312.2%
Brandon ColemanWR427.0%
Josh HillTE325.3%
Coby FleenerTE305.0%
Willie SneadWR203.3%
Tommylee LewisWR152.5%
Michael HoomanawanuiTE101.7%
Zach LineFB61.0%
Adrian PetersonRB30.5%
Garrett GriffinTE10.2%
Chicago Bears2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
