RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Gene Steratore
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playGeorgia Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
San Francisco 49ers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:SF scores 47% · allows 50%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
SF9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed12.7
Pass share41%
35–46% · 272 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
SF4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed4.3
Pass share43%
36–49% · 127 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
SF4 games
Scored6.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
52–73% · 107 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
5.8
5.7Q1
7.0
5.2Q2
12.8scored10.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.2
6.8Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SFATL
2-14
Record
13-6
19.3
Points for / game
34.1
30.0
Points against / game
25.3
1-7 / 1-7
Home / road
7-4 / 6-2
L W L L L
Last 5
L W W W W
2016 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
SFATL
-0.062
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.183
0.084
EPA / play allowed
0.044
198
Pass yards / game
314
126
Rush yards / game
117
251
Pass yards allowed
288
166
Rush yards allowed
104
1.3 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.5 / 1.8
2.9 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.3
16.8
First downs / game
21.9
52
Penalty yards / game
50
+1.5 · #22 of 42
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+11.1 · #1 of 42
2016 season to date · 16–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SFATL
7-22 · 24%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-5 · 64%
Last two seasons (2015–2016), SF 32 games, ATL 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
5SFseriesATL3
Avg total points
45.5
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025ATL 10 at SF 20SF
2022SF 14 at ATL 28ATL
2021ATL 13 at SF 31SF
2019ATL 29 at SF 22ATL
2016SF 13 at ATL 41ATL
2015ATL 16 at SF 17SF
2013ATL 24 at SF 34SF
2012SF 28 at ATL 24PlayoffsSF
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jeremy KerleyWR11523.6%
Quinton PattonWR6312.9%
Garrett CelekTE5010.3%
Torrey SmithWR4910.1%
Vance McDonaldTE459.2%
Shaun DraughnRB398.0%
Carlos HydeRB336.8%
Rod StreaterWR275.5%
Chris HarperWR214.3%
Aaron BurbridgeWR163.3%
DuJuan HarrisRB91.8%
Blake BellTE91.8%
Mike DavisRB51.0%
Je'Ron HammTE40.8%
Blaine GabbertQB10.2%
DeAndre SmelterWR10.2%
Julio JonesWR15324.4%
Mohamed SanuWR9515.2%
Devonta FreemanRB7712.3%
Taylor GabrielWR6410.2%
Tevin ColemanRB487.7%
Aldrick RobinsonWR365.8%
Austin HooperTE365.8%
Justin HardyWR335.3%
Jacob TammeTE315.0%
Levine ToiloloTE254.0%
Patrick DiMarcoRB142.2%
Nick WilliamsWR71.1%
Josh PerkinsTE50.8%
Terron WardRB20.3%
San Francisco 49ers2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
