RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Craig Wrolstad
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Kansas City Chiefs · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2016 season
Travis Kelce · 124 (21.8%)Tyreek Hill · 89 (15.7%)Jeremy Maclin · 80 (14.1%)Chris Conley · 72 (12.7%)Albert Wilson · 54 (9.5%)Spencer Ware · 46 (8.1%)Charcandrick West · 36 (6.3%)Demetrius Harris · 33 (5.8%)De'Anthony Thomas · 9 (1.6%)Anthony Sherman · 7 (1.2%)Ross Travis · 6 (1.1%)Knile Davis · 5 (0.9%)James O'Shaughnessy · 3 (0.5%)Jamaal Charles · 3 (0.5%)Alex Smith · 1 (0.2%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:KC scores 47% · allows 52%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
KC4 games
Scored12.8
Allowed7.5
Pass share43%
31–56% · 127 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
KC10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share61%
55–67% · 280 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
KC3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed7.7
Pass share57%
48–66% · 114 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 10 · trailed 3 (of 17)
4.9
3.9Q1
5.7
6.1Q2
10.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
3.7Q3
7.0
5.5Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
KCIND
12-5
Record
8-8
23.8
Points for / game
25.7
19.4
Points against / game
24.5
6-3 / 6-2
Home / road
4-4 / 4-4
L W W L W
Last 5
W L W L W
2016 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
KCIND
0.009
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.023
-0.012
EPA / play allowed
0.074
240
Pass yards / game
281
106
Rush yards / game
102
256
Pass yards allowed
276
124
Rush yards allowed
120
0.8 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.4
1.9 / 1.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.8 / 2.1
17.4
First downs / game
19.6
53
Penalty yards / game
55
+2.6 · #20 of 42
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.5 · #11 of 42
2016 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
KCIND
4-5 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-10 · 44%
Last two seasons (2015–2016), KC 35 games, IND 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4KCseriesIND5
Avg total points
46.1
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history). KC have won the last 2.
2026IND 30 at KC 33KC
2025IND 20 at KC 23KC
2022KC 17 at IND 20IND
2019IND 19 at KC 13IND
2018IND 13 at KC 31PlayoffsKC
2016KC 30 at IND 14KC
2013KC 44 at IND 45PlayoffsIND
2013IND 23 at KC 7IND
All 9 meetings
2012IND 20 at KC 13IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Travis KelceTE12421.8%
Tyreek HillWR8915.7%
Jeremy MaclinWR8014.1%
Chris ConleyWR7212.7%
Albert WilsonWR549.5%
Spencer WareRB468.1%
Charcandrick WestRB366.3%
Demetrius HarrisTE335.8%
De'Anthony ThomasWR91.6%
Anthony ShermanFB71.2%
Ross TravisTE61.1%
Knile DavisRB50.9%
James O'ShaughnessyTE30.5%
Jamaal CharlesRB30.5%
Alex SmithQB10.2%
T.Y. HiltonWR15527.1%
Jack DoyleTE7513.1%
Phillip DorsettWR5910.3%
Donte MoncriefWR569.8%
Dwayne AllenTE529.1%
Frank GoreRB478.2%
Robert TurbinRB356.1%
Chester RogersWR346.0%
Josh FergusonRB254.4%
Erik SwoopeTE223.9%
Devin StreetWR61.1%
Quan BrayWR40.7%
Jordan TodmanRB10.2%
Kansas City Chiefs2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
