RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Peter Morelli
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Chicago Bears · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CHI scores 39% · allows 53%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CHI5 games
Scored15.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share37%
32–41% · 172 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CHI5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed9.0
Pass share48%
42–54% · 182 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CHI7 games
Scored17.9
Allowed11.0
Pass share64%
60–69% · 257 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
6.4
3.6Q1
3.9
8.1Q2
10.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.2
3.7Q3
9.6
6.3Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CHIHOU
3-13
Record
10-8
17.4
Points for / game
17.9
24.9
Points against / game
20.9
3-5 / 0-8
Home / road
8-1 / 2-7
L L L L W
Last 5
L W L W W
2016 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CHIHOU
-0.032
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.110
0.070
EPA / play allowed
-0.104
259
Pass yards / game
210
108
Rush yards / game
116
239
Pass yards allowed
215
122
Rush yards allowed
98
1.5 / 1.2
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.4
1.8 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.0
19.1
First downs / game
16.8
60
Penalty yards / game
56
−6.1 · #40 of 42
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.2 · #35 of 42
2016 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CHIHOU
8-18 · 31%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-15 · 32%
Last two seasons (2015–2016), CHI 32 games, HOU 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2CHIseriesHOU3
Avg total points
34.8
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024CHI 13 at HOU 19HOU
2022HOU 20 at CHI 23CHI
2020HOU 7 at CHI 36CHI
2016CHI 14 at HOU 23HOU
2012HOU 13 at CHI 6HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Cameron MeredithWR9717.6%
Alshon JefferyWR9417.1%
Zach MillerTE6411.6%
Jordan HowardRB509.1%
Eddie RoyalWR437.8%
Josh BellamyWR386.9%
Deonte ThompsonWR366.5%
Kevin WhiteWR366.5%
Jeremy LangfordRB274.9%
Daniel BrownTE203.6%
Marquess WilsonWR162.9%
Logan PaulsenTE101.8%
Ka'Deem CareyRB71.3%
Ben BrauneckerTE61.1%
Daniel BravermanWR20.4%
Matt BarkleyQB10.2%
Paul LasikeFB10.2%
MyCole PruittTE10.2%
Bralon AddisonWR10.2%
DeAndre HopkinsWR16926.3%
Will FullerWR10316.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE9815.3%
Ryan GriffinTE8112.6%
Lamar MillerRB477.3%
Braxton MillerWR284.4%
Jaelen StrongWR243.7%
Jonathan GrimesRB223.4%
Stephen AndersonTE182.8%
Keith MumpheryWR162.5%
Alfred BlueRB162.5%
Wendall WilliamsWR71.1%
Akeem HuntRB60.9%
Tyler ErvinRB50.8%
Brock OsweilerQB10.2%
Jay ProschFB10.2%
Chicago Bears2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
