RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ron Torbert
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Kansas City Chiefs · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2015 season
Jeremy Maclin · 131 (24.6%)Travis Kelce · 122 (22.9%)Albert Wilson · 72 (13.5%)Chris Conley · 41 (7.7%)Charcandrick West · 39 (7.3%)Jamaal Charles · 30 (5.6%)Jason Avant · 29 (5.5%)De'Anthony Thomas · 24 (4.5%)Demetrius Harris · 12 (2.3%)James O'Shaughnessy · 9 (1.7%)Anthony Sherman · 7 (1.3%)Knile Davis · 6 (1.1%)Spencer Ware · 6 (1.1%)Brian Parker · 2 (0.4%)Frankie Hammond · 2 (0.4%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:KC scores 47% · allows 52%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
KC4 games
Scored12.8
Allowed7.5
Pass share43%
31–56% · 127 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
KC10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share61%
55–67% · 280 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
KC3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed7.7
Pass share57%
48–66% · 114 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 10 · trailed 3 (of 17)
4.9
3.9Q1
5.7
6.1Q2
10.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
3.7Q3
7.0
5.5Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
KCHOU
12-6
Record
9-8
25.3
Points for / game
19.9
17.4
Points against / game
20.2
6-2 / 6-4
Home / road
5-4 / 4-4
L W W W W
Last 5
L W W W L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
KCHOU
0.036
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.067
-0.120
EPA / play allowed
-0.101
218
Pass yards / game
248
129
Rush yards / game
109
246
Pass yards allowed
227
96
Rush yards allowed
102
0.8 / 2.3
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
2.8 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.8
17.3
First downs / game
18.4
54
Penalty yards / game
55
+3.3 · #12 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #30 of 47
2015 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
KCHOU
6-7 · 46%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-13 · 32%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), KC 34 games, HOU 33. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
9KCseriesHOU3
Avg total points
47.9
Meetings
12
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025HOU 20 at KC 10HOU
2024HOU 14 at KC 23PlayoffsKC
2024HOU 19 at KC 27KC
2022KC 30 at HOU 24KC
2020HOU 20 at KC 34KC
2019HOU 31 at KC 51PlayoffsKC
2019HOU 31 at KC 24HOU
2017KC 42 at HOU 34KC
All 12 meetings
2016KC 12 at HOU 19HOU
2015KC 30 at HOU 0PlayoffsKC
2015KC 27 at HOU 20KC
2013HOU 16 at KC 17KC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jeremy MaclinWR13124.6%
Travis KelceTE12222.9%
Albert WilsonWR7213.5%
Chris ConleyWR417.7%
Charcandrick WestRB397.3%
Jamaal CharlesRB305.6%
Jason AvantWR295.5%
De'Anthony ThomasWR244.5%
Demetrius HarrisTE122.3%
James O'ShaughnessyTE91.7%
Anthony ShermanFB71.3%
Knile DavisRB61.1%
Spencer WareRB61.1%
Brian ParkerTE20.4%
Frankie HammondWR20.4%
DeAndre HopkinsWR20331.4%
Nate WashingtonWR10015.5%
Cecil ShortsWR7812.1%
Ryan GriffinTE426.5%
Jonathan GrimesRB335.1%
Keith MumpheryWR325.0%
Arian FosterRB284.3%
Chris PolkRB284.3%
Jaelen StrongWR264.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE253.9%
Garrett GrahamTE192.9%
Alfred BlueRB172.6%
Akeem HuntRB101.5%
Chandler WorthyWR40.6%
Jay ProschFB10.2%
Kansas City Chiefs2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
