RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
John Hussey
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
New Orleans Saints · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NO scores 39% · allows 61%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NOHOU
7-9
Record
9-8
25.5
Points for / game
19.9
29.8
Points against / game
20.2
4-4 / 3-5
Home / road
5-4 / 4-4
W W L W L
Last 5
L W W W L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NOHOU
0.081
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.067
0.141
EPA / play allowed
-0.101
325
Pass yards / game
248
93
Rush yards / game
109
297
Pass yards allowed
227
129
Rush yards allowed
102
1.1 / 1.7
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.8
21.6
First downs / game
18.4
70
Penalty yards / game
55
+6.5 · #7 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #30 of 47
2015 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NOHOU
5-6 · 45%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-13 · 32%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), NO 32 games, HOU 33. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1NOseriesHOU2
Avg total points
40.3
Meetings
3
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2023NO 13 at HOU 20HOU
2019HOU 28 at NO 30NO
2015NO 6 at HOU 24HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brandin CooksWR12919.5%
Benjamin WatsonTE11016.6%
Willie SneadWR10115.2%
Marques ColstonWR6710.1%
Mark IngramRB609.0%
Brandon ColemanWR497.4%
C.J. SpillerRB446.6%
Josh HillTE304.5%
Khiry RobinsonRB203.0%
Michael HoomanawanuiTE162.4%
Tim HightowerRB132.0%
Travaris CadetRB111.7%
Austin JohnsonFB81.2%
Trevor GrahamWR40.6%
Seantavius JonesWR10.2%
DeAndre HopkinsWR20331.4%
Nate WashingtonWR10015.5%
Cecil ShortsWR7812.1%
Ryan GriffinTE426.5%
Jonathan GrimesRB335.1%
Keith MumpheryWR325.0%
Arian FosterRB284.3%
Chris PolkRB284.3%
Jaelen StrongWR264.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE253.9%
Garrett GrahamTE192.9%
Alfred BlueRB172.6%
Akeem HuntRB101.5%
Chandler WorthyWR40.6%
Jay ProschFB10.2%
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
