RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Jerome Boger
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tennessee Titans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENNO
3-13
Record
7-9
18.7
Points for / game
25.5
26.4
Points against / game
29.8
1-7 / 2-6
Home / road
4-4 / 3-5
L L L L W
Last 5
W W L W L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENNO
-0.117
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.081
0.033
EPA / play allowed
0.141
243
Pass yards / game
325
93
Rush yards / game
93
247
Pass yards allowed
297
112
Rush yards allowed
129
1.4 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
3.4 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 1.9
16.3
First downs / game
21.6
49
Penalty yards / game
70
+1.3 · #20 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.5 · #7 of 47
2015 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENNO
3-24 · 11%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-6 · 45%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), TEN 32 games, NO 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2TENseriesNO3
Avg total points
52.6
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). NO have won the last 2.
2025NO 34 at TEN 26NO
2023TEN 15 at NO 16NO
2021NO 21 at TEN 23TEN
2019NO 38 at TEN 28NO
2015TEN 34 at NO 28TEN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Delanie WalkerTE13324.5%
Harry DouglasWR7213.3%
Dorial Green-BeckhamWR6712.3%
Kendall WrightWR6011.0%
Anthony FasanoTE427.7%
Dexter McClusterWR417.6%
Justin HunterWR315.7%
Antonio AndrewsRB295.3%
Bishop SankeyRB224.1%
Craig StevensTE162.9%
Jalston FowlerRB61.1%
Chase CoffmanTE61.1%
Rico RichardsonWR50.9%
Phillip SupernawTE40.7%
Tre McBrideWR40.7%
Andrew TurzilliWR20.4%
David CobbRB20.4%
Marcus MariotaQB10.2%
Brandin CooksWR12919.5%
Benjamin WatsonTE11016.6%
Willie SneadWR10115.2%
Marques ColstonWR6710.1%
Mark IngramRB609.0%
Brandon ColemanWR497.4%
C.J. SpillerRB446.6%
Josh HillTE304.5%
Khiry RobinsonRB203.0%
Michael HoomanawanuiTE162.4%
Tim HightowerRB132.0%
Travaris CadetRB111.7%
Austin JohnsonFB81.2%
Trevor GrahamWR40.6%
Seantavius JonesWR10.2%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
