RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Tony Corrente
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
New England Patriots · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NE scores 61% · allows 47%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NE11 games
Scored8.8
Allowed8.9
Pass share48%
42–54% · 303 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NE4 games
Scored11.5
Allowed5.8
Pass share46%
30–62% · 145 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NE2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed20.5
Pass share72%
68 plays · too few games for a range
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
8.8
5.9Q2
14.7scored8.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.7
4.2Q3
5.6
5.3Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NEIND
13-5
Record
8-8
28.3
Points for / game
20.8
19.7
Points against / game
25.5
8-1 / 5-4
Home / road
4-4 / 4-4
L W L L W
Last 5
W W L L L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NEIND
0.092
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.097
-0.050
EPA / play allowed
0.003
301
Pass yards / game
246
83
Rush yards / game
90
257
Pass yards allowed
273
101
Rush yards allowed
122
0.6 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.6 / 1.9
2.3 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.2
19.6
First downs / game
17.0
52
Penalty yards / game
58
+7.5 · #3 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−1.3 · #33 of 47
2015 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NEIND
5-1 · 83%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-7 · 42%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), NE 37 games, IND 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
7NEseriesIND3
Avg total points
52.3
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). IND have won the last 2.
2024IND 25 at NE 24IND
2023IND 10 vs NE 6IND
2022IND 3 at NE 26NE
2021NE 17 at IND 27IND
2018IND 24 at NE 38NE
2015NE 34 at IND 27NE
2014IND 7 at NE 45PlayoffsNE
2014NE 42 at IND 20NE
All 10 meetings
2013IND 22 at NE 43PlayoffsNE
2012IND 24 at NE 59NE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rob GronkowskiTE14319.8%
Julian EdelmanWR11716.2%
Danny AmendolaWR9813.6%
Brandon LaFellWR7911.0%
James WhiteRB7310.1%
Dion LewisRB506.9%
Scott ChandlerTE425.8%
Keshawn MartinWR425.8%
Brandon BoldenRB344.7%
Aaron DobsonWR212.9%
LeGarrette BlountRB71.0%
Michael WilliamsTE60.8%
Chris HarperWR30.4%
Steven JacksonRB20.3%
Tom BradyQB10.1%
Asante ClevelandTE10.1%
Travaris CadetRB10.1%
Matthew SlaterWR10.1%
T.Y. HiltonWR13422.2%
Donte MoncriefWR10517.4%
Coby FleenerTE8413.9%
Andre JohnsonWR7712.8%
Frank GoreRB589.6%
Phillip DorsettWR396.5%
Dwayne AllenTE294.8%
Griff WhalenWR264.3%
Ahmad BradshawRB142.3%
Jack DoyleTE142.3%
Zurlon TiptonRB81.3%
Dan HerronRB71.2%
Josh RobinsonRB61.0%
Tyler VargaFB20.3%
New England Patriots2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
