RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Bill Vinovich
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBHOU
6-10
Record
9-8
21.4
Points for / game
19.9
26.1
Points against / game
20.2
3-5 / 3-5
Home / road
5-4 / 4-4
L L L L W
Last 5
L W W W L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBHOU
0.019
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.067
0.052
EPA / play allowed
-0.101
253
Pass yards / game
248
135
Rush yards / game
109
255
Pass yards allowed
227
100
Rush yards allowed
102
1.4 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
1.7 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.8
18.8
First downs / game
18.4
74
Penalty yards / game
55
+3.2 · #14 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−1.9 · #36 of 47
2015 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBHOU
6-18 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-13 · 32%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), TB 32 games, HOU 33. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1TBseriesHOU3
Avg total points
46.5
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025TB 20 at HOU 19TB
2023TB 37 at HOU 39HOU
2019HOU 23 at TB 20HOU
2015TB 9 at HOU 19HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mike EvansWR14828.2%
Charles SimsRB7013.3%
Vincent JacksonWR6211.8%
Doug MartinRB448.4%
Adam HumphriesWR407.6%
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTE397.4%
Donteea DyeWR305.7%
Cameron BrateTE305.7%
Louis MurphyWR183.4%
Brandon MyersTE173.2%
Luke StockerTE132.5%
Russell ShepardWR91.7%
Bobby RaineyRB30.6%
Jorvorskie LaneFB20.4%
DeAndre HopkinsWR20331.4%
Nate WashingtonWR10015.5%
Cecil ShortsWR7812.1%
Ryan GriffinTE426.5%
Jonathan GrimesRB335.1%
Keith MumpheryWR325.0%
Arian FosterRB284.3%
Chris PolkRB284.3%
Jaelen StrongWR264.0%
C.J. FiedorowiczTE253.9%
Garrett GrahamTE192.9%
Alfred BlueRB172.6%
Akeem HuntRB101.5%
Chandler WorthyWR40.6%
Jay ProschFB10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
