RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Carl Cheffers
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBNO
6-10
Record
7-9
21.4
Points for / game
25.5
26.1
Points against / game
29.8
3-5 / 3-5
Home / road
4-4 / 3-5
L L L L W
Last 5
W W L W L
2015 season only (not a rolling window) · 16 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBNO
0.019
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.081
0.052
EPA / play allowed
0.141
253
Pass yards / game
325
135
Rush yards / game
93
255
Pass yards allowed
297
100
Rush yards allowed
129
1.4 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
1.7 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 1.9
18.8
First downs / game
21.6
74
Penalty yards / game
70
+3.2 · #14 of 47
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.5 · #7 of 47
2015 season to date · 16 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBNO
6-18 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-6 · 45%
Last two seasons (2014–2015), TB 32 games, NO 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
11TBseriesNO18
Avg total points
46.6
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2025NO 24 at TB 20NO
2025TB 23 at NO 3TB
2024NO 19 at TB 27TB
2024TB 51 at NO 27TB
2023NO 23 at TB 13NO
2023TB 26 at NO 9TB
2022NO 16 at TB 17TB
2022TB 20 at NO 10TB
All 29 meetings
2021NO 9 at TB 0NO
2021TB 27 at NO 36NO
2020TB 30 at NO 20PlayoffsTB
2020NO 38 at TB 3NO
2020TB 23 at NO 34NO
2019NO 34 at TB 17NO
2019TB 24 at NO 31NO
2018NO 28 at TB 14NO
2018TB 48 at NO 40TB
2017NO 24 at TB 31TB
2017TB 10 at NO 30NO
2016TB 24 at NO 31NO
2016NO 11 at TB 16TB
2015NO 24 at TB 17NO
2015TB 26 at NO 19TB
2014NO 23 at TB 20NO
2014TB 31 at NO 37NO
2013TB 17 at NO 42NO
2013NO 16 at TB 14NO
2012TB 0 at NO 41NO
2012NO 35 at TB 28NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Mike EvansWR14828.2%
Charles SimsRB7013.3%
Vincent JacksonWR6211.8%
Doug MartinRB448.4%
Adam HumphriesWR407.6%
Austin Seferian-JenkinsTE397.4%
Donteea DyeWR305.7%
Cameron BrateTE305.7%
Louis MurphyWR183.4%
Brandon MyersTE173.2%
Luke StockerTE132.5%
Russell ShepardWR91.7%
Bobby RaineyRB30.6%
Jorvorskie LaneFB20.4%
Brandin CooksWR12919.5%
Benjamin WatsonTE11016.6%
Willie SneadWR10115.2%
Marques ColstonWR6710.1%
Mark IngramRB609.0%
Brandon ColemanWR497.4%
C.J. SpillerRB446.6%
Josh HillTE304.5%
Khiry RobinsonRB203.0%
Michael HoomanawanuiTE162.4%
Tim HightowerRB132.0%
Travaris CadetRB111.7%
Austin JohnsonFB81.2%
Trevor GrahamWR40.6%
Seantavius JonesWR10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
