RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Tony Corrente
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playEdward Jones Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Denver Broncos · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENLAR
12-5
Record
6-10
29.1
Points for / game
20.3
22.2
Points against / game
22.1
8-1 / 4-4
Home / road
3-5 / 3-5
L W L W W
Last 5
L L L W W
2014 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENLAR
0.070
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.114
-0.053
EPA / play allowed
-0.041
294
Pass yards / game
231
110
Rush yards / game
102
243
Pass yards allowed
258
81
Rush yards allowed
110
1.1 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.3 / 1.9
1.1 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.9 / 2.5
20.1
First downs / game
16.8
62
Penalty yards / game
71
+4.8 · #9 of 45
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.9 · #36 of 45
2014 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENLAR
1-2 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-16 · 30%
Last two seasons (2013–2014), DEN 36 games, LAR 32. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1DENseriesLAR3
Avg total points
48.3
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2026LAR 26 at DEN 30DEN
2022DEN 14 at LAR 51LAR
2018LAR 23 at DEN 20LAR
2014DEN 7 at LAR 22LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Demaryius ThomasWR19630.2%
Emmanuel SandersWR15624.1%
Julius ThomasTE6910.6%
Wes WelkerWR6610.2%
C.J. AndersonRB507.7%
Ronnie HillmanRB345.2%
Jacob TammeTE284.3%
Andre CaldwellWR162.5%
Montee BallRB132.0%
Virgil GreenTE81.2%
Juwan ThompsonRB71.1%
Cody LatimerWR40.6%
Isaiah BurseWR10.2%
Jared CookTE9919.6%
Kenny BrittWR8416.6%
Benny CunninghamRB5310.5%
Stedman BaileyWR469.1%
Tavon AustinWR448.7%
Brian QuickWR397.7%
Lance KendricksTE387.5%
Tre MasonRB265.1%
Zac StacyRB234.5%
Chris GivensWR204.0%
Austin PettisWR183.6%
Cory HarkeyTE112.2%
Trey WattsRB40.8%
Shaun HillQB10.2%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
