RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ed Hochuli
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Green Bay Packers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:GB scores 48% · allows 43%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
GB5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed19.4
Pass share50%
31–70% · 157 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
GB7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed10.4
Pass share60%
54–65% · 196 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
GB5 games
Scored13.8
Allowed10.8
Pass share57%
38–75% · 161 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 5 (of 17)
2.9
2.3Q1
7.2
7.7Q2
10.2scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.5Q3
5.3
8.3Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
GBNO
13-5
Record
7-9
29.7
Points for / game
25.1
22.1
Points against / game
26.5
9-0 / 4-5
Home / road
3-5 / 4-4
L W W W L
Last 5
W L W L W
2014 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
GBNO
0.111
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.077
-0.039
EPA / play allowed
0.105
275
Pass yards / game
310
121
Rush yards / game
114
239
Pass yards allowed
263
125
Rush yards allowed
133
0.7 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.6 / 1.4
1.8 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
20.3
First downs / game
22.4
50
Penalty yards / game
42
+10.5 · #1 of 45
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.2 · #5 of 45
2014 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
GBNO
1-10 · 9%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-5 · 38%
Last two seasons (2013–2014), GB 35 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4GBseriesNO3
Avg total points
48.9
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). GB have won the last 2.
2024NO 0 at GB 34GB
2023NO 17 at GB 18GB
2021GB 3 vs NO 38NO
2020GB 37 at NO 30GB
2017NO 26 at GB 17NO
2014GB 23 at NO 44NO
2012NO 27 at GB 28GB
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jordy NelsonWR16427.4%
Randall CobbWR14824.7%
Davante AdamsWR8013.4%
Eddie LacyRB599.8%
Andrew QuarlessTE518.5%
Richard RodgersTE366.0%
James StarksRB325.3%
Jarrett BoykinWR122.0%
John KuhnFB71.2%
Brandon BostickTE40.7%
Jeff JanisWR20.3%
DuJuan HarrisRB20.3%
Kevin DorseyWR20.3%
Jimmy GrahamTE12419.1%
Marques ColstonWR9915.3%
Kenny StillsWR8412.9%
Brandin CooksWR6910.6%
Pierre ThomasRB558.5%
Travaris CadetRB517.9%
Mark IngramRB365.5%
Benjamin WatsonTE314.8%
Nick ToonWR233.5%
Robert MeachemWR213.2%
Josh HillTE203.1%
Khiry RobinsonRB111.7%
Erik LorigFB101.5%
Joseph MorganWR101.5%
Austin JohnsonFB20.3%
Drew BreesQB10.2%
Jalen SaundersWR10.2%
Brian LeonardRB10.2%
Green Bay Packers2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
