RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Peter Morelli
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playReliant Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
New England Patriots · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NE scores 61% · allows 47%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NE11 games
Scored8.8
Allowed8.9
Pass share48%
42–54% · 303 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NE4 games
Scored11.5
Allowed5.8
Pass share46%
30–62% · 145 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NE2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed20.5
Pass share72%
68 plays · too few games for a range
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
8.8
5.9Q2
14.7scored8.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.7
4.2Q3
5.6
5.3Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NEHOU
13-5
Record
2-14
27.9
Points for / game
17.3
21.4
Points against / game
26.8
9-0 / 4-5
Home / road
1-7 / 1-7
L W W W L
Last 5
L L L L L
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NEHOU
0.052
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.095
0.023
EPA / play allowed
0.014
268
Pass yards / game
261
131
Rush yards / game
109
270
Pass yards allowed
207
129
Rush yards allowed
122
1.0 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.8 / 1.1
2.4 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.6 / 1.9
20.9
First downs / game
18.0
38
Penalty yards / game
71
+4.3 · #9 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.1 · #37 of 46
2013 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NEHOU
1-4 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-12 · 8%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), NE 36 games, HOU 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
10NEseriesHOU3
Avg total points
51.2
Meetings
13
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (11 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025HOU 16 at NE 28PlayoffsNE
2024HOU 41 at NE 21HOU
2021NE 25 at HOU 22NE
2020NE 20 at HOU 27HOU
2019NE 22 at HOU 28HOU
2018HOU 20 at NE 27NE
2017HOU 33 at NE 36NE
2016HOU 16 at NE 34PlayoffsNE
All 13 meetings
2016HOU 0 at NE 27NE
2015NE 27 at HOU 6NE
2013NE 34 at HOU 31NE
2012HOU 28 at NE 41PlayoffsNE
2012HOU 14 at NE 42NE
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Julian EdelmanWR17525.7%
Danny AmendolaWR8913.1%
Shane VereenRB8312.2%
Aaron DobsonWR7511.0%
Kenbrell ThompkinsWR7210.6%
Rob GronkowskiTE669.7%
Brandon BoldenRB294.3%
Michael HoomanawanuiTE233.4%
Josh BoyceWR192.8%
Austin CollieWR182.6%
Stevan RidleyRB121.8%
LeGarrette BlountRB50.7%
James DevelinFB40.6%
Matthew MulliganTE40.6%
Zach SudfeldTE30.4%
Leon WashingtonRB10.1%
D.J. WilliamsTE10.1%
Matthew SlaterWR10.1%
Andre JohnsonWR18129.1%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9114.7%
Garrett GrahamTE8914.3%
Ben TateRB497.9%
Owen DanielsTE416.6%
Keshawn MartinWR406.4%
Arian FosterRB355.6%
Ryan GriffinTE284.5%
DeVier PoseyWR254.0%
Dennis JohnsonRB121.9%
Greg JonesFB111.8%
Lestar JeanWR81.3%
Jonathan GrimesRB61.0%
Ray GrahamRB30.5%
Deji KarimRB20.3%
New England Patriots2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
