RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Terry McAulay
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Buffalo Bills · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFNO
6-10
Record
12-6
21.2
Points for / game
25.3
24.3
Points against / game
19.5
4-4 / 2-6
Home / road
8-0 / 4-6
L W W L L
Last 5
L W W L L
2013 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFNO
-0.070
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.107
-0.084
EPA / play allowed
-0.030
211
Pass yards / game
318
144
Rush yards / game
98
229
Pass yards allowed
208
129
Rush yards allowed
113
1.4 / 2.2
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
3.0 / 3.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.0
16.4
First downs / game
21.0
60
Penalty yards / game
54
−1.6 · #29 of 46
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+8.6 · #5 of 46
2013 season to date · 16–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFNO
5-17 · 23%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-9 · 31%
Last two seasons (2012–2013), BUF 32 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2BUFseriesNO2
Avg total points
49.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). BUF have won the last 2.
2025NO 19 at BUF 31BUF
2021BUF 31 at NO 6BUF
2017NO 47 at BUF 10NO
2013BUF 17 at NO 35NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steve JohnsonWR10119.5%
Robert WoodsWR8516.4%
Scott ChandlerTE8115.6%
Fred JacksonRB6612.7%
Trevor GrahamWR5811.2%
C.J. SpillerRB407.7%
Marquise GoodwinWR326.2%
Chris HoganWR173.3%
Lee SmithTE91.7%
Tashard ChoiceRB81.5%
Frank SummersFB81.5%
Chris GraggTE71.3%
Marcus EasleyWR51.0%
Ronnie WingoRB10.2%
Evan RodriguezTE10.2%
Jimmy GrahamTE15321.4%
Marques ColstonWR12817.9%
Darren SprolesRB10214.3%
Pierre ThomasRB8411.7%
Lance MooreWR638.8%
Kenny StillsWR547.6%
Benjamin WatsonTE334.6%
Robert MeachemWR334.6%
Jed CollinsFB192.7%
Mark IngramRB172.4%
Josh HillTE131.8%
Nick ToonWR121.7%
Travaris CadetRB30.4%
Khiry RobinsonRB10.1%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
