RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Jerome Boger
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (9th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Baltimore Ravens · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BAL scores 53% · allows 46%SF scores 47% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALSFsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BAL9 games
Scored11.3
Allowed11.1
Pass share35%
27–43% · 237 plays
SF9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed12.7
Pass share41%
35–46% · 272 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BAL3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share47%
32–62% · 94 plays
SF4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed4.3
Pass share43%
36–49% · 127 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BAL5 games
Scored12.0
Allowed10.6
Pass share47%
41–53% · 157 plays
SF4 games
Scored6.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
52–73% · 107 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.0
3.9Q1
7.6
5.9Q2
12.6scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.0
5.4Q3
6.4
6.1Q4
SFat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
5.8
5.7Q1
7.0
5.2Q2
12.8scored10.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.2
6.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BALSF
14-6
Record
13-5-1
26.1
Points for / game
26.4
21.6
Points against / game
19.1
7-2 / 7-4
Home / road
7-2 / 6-3
W W W W L
Last 5
L W W W L
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 19–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BALSF
0.023
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.133
-0.005
EPA / play allowed
-0.023
257
Pass yards / game
229
122
Rush yards / game
166
255
Pass yards allowed
232
127
Rush yards allowed
94
0.8 / 1.7
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.8
2.2 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.2
17.9
First downs / game
19.3
67
Penalty yards / game
58
+3.1 · #15 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+8.0 · #4 of 40
2012 season to date · 19–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BALSF
4-5 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-1 · 67%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), BAL 20 games, SF 19. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3BALseriesSF1
Avg total points
49.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). BAL have won the last 2.
2023BAL 33 at SF 19BAL
2019SF 17 at BAL 20BAL
2015BAL 20 at SF 25SF
2012BAL 34 vs SF 31Super BowlBAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Anquan BoldinWR14821.7%
Torrey SmithWR13519.8%
Dennis PittaTE11316.6%
Ray RiceRB9714.2%
Jacoby JonesWR679.8%
Ed DicksonTE416.0%
Vonta LeachFB304.4%
Tandon DossWR213.1%
Bernard PierceRB121.8%
David ReedWR60.9%
Deonte ThompsonWR60.9%
Anthony AllenRB40.6%
Billy BajemaTE10.1%
Michael CrabtreeWR15430.1%
Vernon DavisTE8015.7%
Randy MossWR6312.3%
Mario ManninghamWR5711.2%
Delanie WalkerTE509.8%
Frank GoreRB387.4%
Kyle WilliamsWR224.3%
Bruce MillerFB142.7%
Kendall HunterRB122.3%
LaMichael JamesRB71.4%
Garrett CelekTE71.4%
Ted GinnWR51.0%
A.J. JenkinsWR10.2%
Chad HallWR10.2%
Baltimore Ravens2024–25 seasons
San Francisco 49ers2024–25 seasons
