RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ed Hochuli
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Buffalo Bills · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2012 season
Steve Johnson · 148 (29.1%)Scott Chandler · 74 (14.5%)Donald Jones · 67 (13.2%)Trevor Graham · 58 (11.4%)C.J. Spiller · 57 (11.2%)Fred Jackson · 42 (8.3%)Brad Smith · 22 (4.3%)Dorin Dickerson · 15 (2.9%)Tashard Choice · 9 (1.8%)Ruvell Martin · 6 (1.2%)David Nelson · 5 (1.0%)Lee Smith · 4 (0.8%)Corey McIntyre · 2 (0.4%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFIND
6-10
Record
11-6
21.5
Points for / game
21.5
27.2
Points against / game
24.2
4-4 / 2-6
Home / road
7-1 / 4-5
W L L L W
Last 5
L W W L W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFIND
-0.002
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.003
0.082
EPA / play allowed
0.086
214
Pass yards / game
274
139
Rush yards / game
107
229
Pass yards allowed
251
146
Rush yards allowed
139
1.7 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.2
1.9 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
2.6 / 1.9
17.4
First downs / game
20.0
54
Penalty yards / game
49
+0.1 · #20 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.0 · #17 of 40
2012 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFIND
1-8 · 11%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-5 · 55%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), BUF 16 games, IND 17. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4BUFseriesIND3
Avg total points
41.9
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024BUF 30 at IND 20BUF
2021IND 41 at BUF 15IND
2020IND 24 at BUF 27PlayoffsBUF
2018BUF 5 at IND 37IND
2017IND 7 at BUF 13BUF
2015IND 14 at BUF 27BUF
2012BUF 13 at IND 20IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Steve JohnsonWR14829.1%
Scott ChandlerTE7414.5%
Donald JonesWR6713.2%
Trevor GrahamWR5811.4%
C.J. SpillerRB5711.2%
Fred JacksonRB428.3%
Brad SmithWR224.3%
Dorin DickersonTE152.9%
Tashard ChoiceRB91.8%
Ruvell MartinWR61.2%
David NelsonWR51.0%
Lee SmithTE40.8%
Corey McIntyreFB20.4%
Reggie WayneWR21231.6%
Donnie AveryWR13420.0%
T.Y. HiltonWR10315.4%
Dwayne AllenTE7210.7%
Coby FleenerTE537.9%
Vick BallardRB294.3%
LaVon BrazillWR263.9%
Donald BrownRB131.9%
Mewelde MooreRB81.2%
Kris AdamsWR81.2%
Weslye SaundersTE40.6%
Nathan PalmerWR40.6%
Delone CarterRB20.3%
Austin CollieWR10.1%
Robert HughesRB10.1%
Dominique JonesTE10.1%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
