RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ron Winter
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMall of America Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tampa Bay Buccaneers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2012 season
Vincent Jackson · 147 (26.3%)Mike Williams · 126 (22.5%)Dallas Clark · 75 (13.4%)Doug Martin · 70 (12.5%)Tiquan Underwood · 55 (9.8%)Luke Stocker · 28 (5.0%)D.J. Ware · 20 (3.6%)Erik Lorig · 19 (3.4%)Arrelious Benn · 6 (1.1%)Nate Byham · 4 (0.7%)Chris Owusu · 3 (0.5%)Preston Parker · 2 (0.4%)LeGarrette Blount · 2 (0.4%)Sammie Stroughter · 2 (0.4%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBMIN
7-9
Record
10-7
24.3
Points for / game
22.9
24.6
Points against / game
21.9
3-5 / 4-4
Home / road
7-1 / 3-6
W L L L L
Last 5
L W W W W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBMIN
0.020
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.008
0.019
EPA / play allowed
0.005
259
Pass yards / game
183
115
Rush yards / game
165
309
Pass yards allowed
263
83
Rush yards allowed
104
1.2 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.5
1.6 / 1.7
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 2.8
17.3
First downs / game
17.2
51
Penalty yards / game
51
+1.4 · #18 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.8 · #26 of 40
2012 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBMIN
4-6 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-4 · 64%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), TB 16 games, MIN 17. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3TBseriesMIN3
Avg total points
42.0
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2026MIN 23 at TB 16MIN
2023TB 20 at MIN 17TB
2020MIN 14 at TB 26TB
2017TB 17 at MIN 34MIN
2014MIN 19 at TB 13MIN
2012TB 36 at MIN 17TB
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vincent JacksonWR14726.3%
Mike WilliamsWR12622.5%
Dallas ClarkTE7513.4%
Doug MartinRB7012.5%
Tiquan UnderwoodWR559.8%
Luke StockerTE285.0%
D.J. WareRB203.6%
Erik LorigFB193.4%
Arrelious BennWR61.1%
Nate ByhamTE40.7%
Chris OwusuWR30.5%
Preston ParkerWR20.4%
LeGarrette BlountRB20.4%
Sammie StroughterWR20.4%
Kyle RudolphTE9719.2%
Percy HarvinWR8516.8%
Michael JenkinsWR7715.2%
Jerome SimpsonWR5711.3%
Adrian PetersonRB5410.7%
Jarius WrightWR407.9%
Toby GerhartRB275.3%
Devin AromashoduWR254.9%
John CarlsonTE163.2%
Stephen BurtonWR112.2%
Rhett EllisonTE102.0%
Jerome FeltonFB40.8%
Christian PonderQB10.2%
Allen ReisnerTE10.2%
Matt AsiataRB10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
