RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Jeff Triplette
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMall of America Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Tennessee Titans · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENMIN
6-10
Record
10-7
20.6
Points for / game
22.9
29.4
Points against / game
21.9
4-4 / 2-6
Home / road
7-1 / 3-6
W L W L L
Last 5
L W W W W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 16–17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENMIN
-0.078
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.008
0.060
EPA / play allowed
0.005
224
Pass yards / game
183
105
Rush yards / game
165
263
Pass yards allowed
263
127
Rush yards allowed
104
1.6 / 2.0
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.5
2.4 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 2.8
14.8
First downs / game
17.2
53
Penalty yards / game
51
−2.1 · #30 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.8 · #26 of 40
2012 season to date · 16–17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENMIN
4-8 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-4 · 64%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), TEN 16 games, MIN 17. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1TENseriesMIN3
Avg total points
43.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024MIN 23 at TEN 13MIN
2020TEN 31 at MIN 30TEN
2016MIN 25 at TEN 16MIN
2012TEN 7 at MIN 30MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kendall WrightWR10419.4%
Nate WashingtonWR9016.8%
Kenny BrittWR9016.8%
Jared CookTE7213.4%
Chris JohnsonRB499.1%
Damian WilliamsWR458.4%
Craig StevensTE336.1%
Taylor ThompsonTE132.4%
Lavelle HawkinsWR112.0%
Darius ReynaudRB91.7%
Quinn JohnsonFB81.5%
Michael PrestonWR71.3%
Javon RingerRB50.9%
Jamie HarperRB10.2%
Kyle RudolphTE9719.2%
Percy HarvinWR8516.8%
Michael JenkinsWR7715.2%
Jerome SimpsonWR5711.3%
Adrian PetersonRB5410.7%
Jarius WrightWR407.9%
Toby GerhartRB275.3%
Devin AromashoduWR254.9%
John CarlsonTE163.2%
Stephen BurtonWR112.2%
Rhett EllisonTE102.0%
Jerome FeltonFB40.8%
Christian PonderQB10.2%
Allen ReisnerTE10.2%
Matt AsiataRB10.2%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
