RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ken Roan
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMall of America Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
San Francisco 49ers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2012 season
Michael Crabtree · 154 (30.1%)Vernon Davis · 80 (15.7%)Randy Moss · 63 (12.3%)Mario Manningham · 57 (11.2%)Delanie Walker · 50 (9.8%)Frank Gore · 38 (7.4%)Kyle Williams · 22 (4.3%)Bruce Miller · 14 (2.7%)Kendall Hunter · 12 (2.3%)LaMichael James · 7 (1.4%)Garrett Celek · 7 (1.4%)Ted Ginn · 5 (1.0%)A.J. Jenkins · 1 (0.2%)Chad Hall · 1 (0.2%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:SF scores 47% · allows 50%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
SF9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed12.7
Pass share41%
35–46% · 272 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
SF4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed4.3
Pass share43%
36–49% · 127 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
SF4 games
Scored6.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
52–73% · 107 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
5.8
5.7Q1
7.0
5.2Q2
12.8scored10.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.2
6.8Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SFMIN
13-5-1
Record
10-7
26.4
Points for / game
22.9
19.1
Points against / game
21.9
7-2 / 6-3
Home / road
7-1 / 3-6
L W W W L
Last 5
L W W W W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
SFMIN
0.133
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.008
-0.023
EPA / play allowed
0.005
229
Pass yards / game
183
166
Rush yards / game
165
232
Pass yards allowed
263
94
Rush yards allowed
104
0.9 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.5
2.4 / 2.2
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 2.8
19.3
First downs / game
17.2
58
Penalty yards / game
51
+4.0 · #12 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.8 · #26 of 40
2012 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SFMIN
2-1 · 67%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-4 · 64%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), SF 19 games, MIN 17. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3SFseriesMIN4
Avg total points
39.4
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). MIN have won the last 2.
2024SF 17 at MIN 23MIN
2023SF 17 at MIN 22MIN
2021MIN 26 at SF 34SF
2019MIN 10 at SF 27PlayoffsSF
2018SF 16 at MIN 24MIN
2015MIN 3 at SF 20SF
2012SF 13 at MIN 24MIN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael CrabtreeWR15430.1%
Vernon DavisTE8015.7%
Randy MossWR6312.3%
Mario ManninghamWR5711.2%
Delanie WalkerTE509.8%
Frank GoreRB387.4%
Kyle WilliamsWR224.3%
Bruce MillerFB142.7%
Kendall HunterRB122.3%
LaMichael JamesRB71.4%
Garrett CelekTE71.4%
Ted GinnWR51.0%
A.J. JenkinsWR10.2%
Chad HallWR10.2%
Kyle RudolphTE9719.2%
Percy HarvinWR8516.8%
Michael JenkinsWR7715.2%
Jerome SimpsonWR5711.3%
Adrian PetersonRB5410.7%
Jarius WrightWR407.9%
Toby GerhartRB275.3%
Devin AromashoduWR254.9%
John CarlsonTE163.2%
Stephen BurtonWR112.2%
Rhett EllisonTE102.0%
Jerome FeltonFB40.8%
Christian PonderQB10.2%
Allen ReisnerTE10.2%
Matt AsiataRB10.2%
San Francisco 49ers2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
