RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Ken Roan
Too few earlier games on record to compare with the league.
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = — league games, 0 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playGeorgia Dome · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Denver Broncos · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENATL
13-4
Record
14-4
30.4
Points for / game
26.3
19.2
Points against / game
19.7
7-2 / 6-2
Home / road
8-2 / 6-2
L W W W W
Last 5
L W L W W
2012 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENATL
0.084
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.089
-0.088
EPA / play allowed
0.011
292
Pass yards / game
298
115
Rush yards / game
91
229
Pass yards allowed
260
95
Rush yards allowed
125
1.3 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 2.1
1.4 / 3.1
Sacks allowed / made
1.6 / 1.8
21.6
First downs / game
20.2
52
Penalty yards / game
25
+9.0 · #3 of 40
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+9.1 · #2 of 40
2012 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENATL
1-3 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-1 · 67%
Last two seasons (2011–2012), DEN 17 games, ATL 18. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1DENseriesATL3
Avg total points
48.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024ATL 6 at DEN 38DEN
2020DEN 27 at ATL 34ATL
2016ATL 23 at DEN 16ATL
2012DEN 21 at ATL 27ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Demaryius ThomasWR14823.7%
Eric DeckerWR13221.1%
Jacob TammeTE8713.9%
Joel DreessenTE6610.6%
Brandon StokleyWR6510.4%
Willis McGaheeRB335.3%
Knowshon MorenoRB284.5%
Matt WillisWR233.7%
Ronnie HillmanRB162.6%
Lance BallRB111.8%
Virgil GreenTE61.0%
Andre CaldwellWR40.6%
Jacob HesterRB30.5%
Trindon HollidayWR20.3%
Chris GronkowskiRB10.2%
Roddy WhiteWR16724.4%
Julio JonesWR15222.2%
Tony GonzalezTE13920.3%
Harry DouglasWR659.5%
Jacquizz RodgersRB649.3%
Jason SnellingFB375.4%
Michael TurnerRB304.4%
Drew DavisWR71.0%
Lousaka PoliteFB71.0%
Michael PalmerTE60.9%
Tommy GallardaTE40.6%
Mike CoxFB30.4%
Chase CoffmanTE20.3%
Kevin ConeWR10.1%
Antone SmithRB10.1%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
