RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 15, 2024
Carl Cheffers
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.7
≈ in line with the league average (12.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
97.6
≈ in line with the league average (103.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.2
≈ in line with the league average (10.4)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 521 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
PIT offensevsDET defense
PIT offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#22
+0.01
Stronger#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
−0.00
#7Stronger
−0.04
#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
39%
#20
37%
Stronger#9
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#18slight
60%
#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#12
7.7%
slight#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.89
#7Stronger
1.12
#17
DET offensevsPIT defense
DET offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · PIT defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
+0.17
#5Stronger
+0.04
#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#16Stronger
−0.01
#26
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#19Stronger
43%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#9
52%
slight#5
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.3%
#17
7.1%
Stronger#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.88
#6
1.56
slight#5
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
PIT offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
−0.01#22▼
+0.01#14▼
Pass success ratefavors DET
42%#27
42%#6
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.0%#25
9.1%#26▼
Yards / dropbackfavors DET
5.8#25
6.1#16
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.2
9.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
60%
44%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
+0.2#19▼
−1.1#9▼
YAC / completion
6.4#1
4.3#3
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.6%#12
7.7%#8
Scramble rate
2.1%
4.9%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#8▼
2.3%#13▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 20 · R 41
L 36 · M 21 · R 43
DET offensePIT defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
+0.17#5▼
+0.04#16
Pass success ratefavors DET
48%#7
45%#16
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DET
10.7%#5
7.8%#13▲
Yards / dropbackfavors DET
7.0#6
6.4#19▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.4
7.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
7%
8%
Short throws (≤5 air)
57%
55%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.5#11▼
−0.3#13▲
YAC / completionfavors DET
6.1#2
5.1#18
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors PIT
6.3%#17▲
7.1%#9▲
Scramble rate
0.8%
3.8%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DET
1.4%#4▲
2.5%#10▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 32 · M 32 · R 35
L 37 · M 30 · R 33
Pittsburgh Steelers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2025 season
DK Metcalf · 104 (18.8%)Kenny Gainwell · 91 (16.5%)Calvin Austin III · 61 (11.0%)Jonnu Smith · 57 (10.3%)Pat Freiermuth · 57 (10.3%)Jaylen Warren · 46 (8.3%)Darnell Washington · 43 (7.8%)Marquez Valdes-Scantling · 26 (4.7%)Roman Wilson · 21 (3.8%)Adam Thielen · 19 (3.4%)Scott Miller · 14 (2.5%)Ben Skowronek · 6 (1.1%)Connor Heyward · 4 (0.7%)Kaleb Johnson · 2 (0.4%)Spencer Anderson · 1 (0.2%)Aaron Rodgers · 1 (0.2%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:PIT scores 49% · allows 44%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
PIT8 games
Scored11.0
Allowed14.4
Pass share57%
50–65% · 213 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
PIT3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share52%
42–63% · 94 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
PIT6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed10.3
Pass share66%
62–70% · 172 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.8
4.1Q1
6.6
6.1Q2
10.4scored10.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.8Q3
7.0
9.4Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PITDET
10-8
Record
9-8
22.4
Points for / game
28.3
23.2
Points against / game
24.3
6-4 / 4-4
Home / road
5-3 / 4-5
L W L W W
Last 5
W L L L W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
PITDET
0.004
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.075
0.023
EPA / play allowed
-0.005
210
Pass yards / game
269
101
Rush yards / game
120
260
Pass yards allowed
237
116
Rush yards allowed
115
0.7 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.6
1.9 / 2.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.8
15.6
First downs / game
19.4
46
Penalty yards / game
42
−0.1 · #31 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.4 · #10 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PITDET
10-10 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-4 · 43%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), PIT 36 games, DET 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3PITseriesDET0
Avg total points
46.0
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025PIT 29 at DET 24PIT
2021DET 16 at PIT 16Tie
2017PIT 20 at DET 15PIT
2013DET 27 at PIT 37PIT
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
DK MetcalfWR10418.8%
Kenny GainwellRB9116.5%
Calvin Austin IIIWR6111.0%
Jonnu SmithTE5710.3%
Pat FreiermuthTE5710.3%
Jaylen WarrenRB468.3%
Darnell WashingtonTE437.8%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR264.7%
Roman WilsonWR213.8%
Adam ThielenWR193.4%
Scott MillerWR142.5%
Ben SkowronekWR61.1%
Connor HeywardFB40.7%
Kaleb JohnsonRB20.4%
Spencer AndersonG10.2%
Aaron RodgersQB10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR17231.3%
Jameson WilliamsWR10218.5%
Jahmyr GibbsRB9417.1%
Sam LaPortaTE498.9%
Kalif RaymondWR305.5%
David MontgomeryRB295.3%
Isaac TeSlaaWR274.9%
Brock WrightTE224.0%
Anthony FirkserTE101.8%
Ross DwelleyTE50.9%
Shane ZylstraTE50.9%
Tom KennedyWR40.7%
Giovanni RicciTE10.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
