RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 7, 2024
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.7)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
95.2
≈ in line with the league average (102.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (10.3)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 521 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIN offensevsDAL defense
MIN offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 2
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.16
#29slight
+0.24
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
−0.05
#18Stronger
+0.05
#30
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
32%
#31slight
48%
#32
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
57%
#17Stronger
67%
#30
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
10.5%
#31
5.5%
slight#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.65
#32
0.65
slight#30
DAL offensevsMIN defense
DAL offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 5 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#6
−0.12
slight#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.00
#8slight
−0.08
#13
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#8
35%
slight#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
58%
#12
43%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.6%
#6
9.3%
slight#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#19
1.18
slight#16
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIN offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.16#29▼
+0.24#31▲
Pass success rate
42%#28
51%#30
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.0%#24▼
9.5%#27
Yards / dropback
5.4#28
7.3#32
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.8
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
51%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.9#27▲
+6.9#31▲
YAC / completionfavors MIN
5.1#15
5.7#28
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
10.5%#31▲
5.5%#26
Scramble rate
4.9%
6.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
4.3%#32▼
1.1%#30▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 18 · R 46
L 37 · M 17 · R 46
DAL offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.16#6
−0.12#2▼
Pass success rate
48%#8
40%#3▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
8.2%#12
6.1%#1▼
Yards / dropback
6.9#7
5.6#6▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.2
6.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+2.2#8▼
−4.4#4▼
YAC / completion
5.0#19
5.3#22
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
4.6%#6▲
9.3%#3▲
Scramble rate
4.3%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
1.9%#13▼
1.8%#21▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 42 · M 19 · R 39
L 39 · M 23 · R 37
Minnesota Vikings · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIN scores 48% · allows 55%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MINDAL
9-8
Record
7-9-1
20.2
Points for / game
27.7
19.6
Points against / game
30.1
4-4 / 5-4
Home / road
4-3 / 3-6
W W W W W
Last 5
L W L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MINDAL
-0.120
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.094
-0.087
EPA / play allowed
0.166
189
Pass yards / game
279
108
Rush yards / game
126
178
Pass yards allowed
266
124
Rush yards allowed
125
1.4 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.0
3.5 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
1.8 / 2.0
15.2
First downs / game
20.5
52
Penalty yards / game
67
−4.7 · #43 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.2 · #8 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MINDAL
8-6 · 57%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-12-1 · 40%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), MIN 35 games, DAL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2MINseriesDAL5
Avg total points
47.4
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025MIN 34 at DAL 26MIN
2022DAL 40 at MIN 3DAL
2021DAL 20 at MIN 16DAL
2020DAL 31 at MIN 28DAL
2019MIN 28 at DAL 24MIN
2016DAL 17 at MIN 15DAL
2013MIN 23 at DAL 27DAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Justin JeffersonWR14130.1%
Jordan AddisonWR7916.9%
T.J. HockensonTE6614.1%
Jalen NailorWR5311.3%
Aaron JonesRB418.8%
Josh OliverTE194.1%
Adam ThielenWR183.8%
Jordan MasonRB163.4%
Zavier ScottRB163.4%
Ben SimsTE61.3%
Ty ChandlerRB40.9%
Ben YurosekTE30.6%
Tai FeltonWR30.6%
C.J. HamFB20.4%
Cam AkersRB10.2%
George PickensWR13722.6%
CeeDee LambWR11719.3%
Jake FergusonTE10216.8%
Ryan FlournoyWR569.2%
Javonte WilliamsRB518.4%
KaVontae TurpinWR386.3%
Jalen TolbertWR345.6%
Luke SchoonmakerTE233.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB152.5%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE132.1%
Miles SandersRB81.3%
Malik DavisRB50.8%
Jonathan MingoWR50.8%
Phil MafahRB20.3%
Jaydon BlueRB10.2%
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
