RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 31, 2023
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.5
≈ in line with the league average (12.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
99.0
≈ in line with the league average (101.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.2
≈ in line with the league average (10.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 493 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TB offensevsLAR defense
TB offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LAR defense in 5 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#15
−0.02
slight#11
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#24
−0.09
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#11slight
38%
#12
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#23
53%
Stronger#8
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#15
6.6%
slight#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#8
1.50
slight#6
LAR offensevsTB defense
LAR offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · TB defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
+0.22
#2Stronger
+0.09
#20
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#4slight
−0.11
#5
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#23
40%
Stronger#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
64%
#7Stronger
70%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 19 places
3.9%
#3Stronger
5.8%
#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.80
#3slight
1.29
#8
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TB offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBLAR
8-9
Record
14-6
22.4
Points for / game
29.9
24.2
Points against / game
21.3
4-4 / 4-5
Home / road
7-1 / 7-5
W L L L L
Last 5
L W W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBLAR
-0.010
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.134
0.019
EPA / play allowed
-0.024
221
Pass yards / game
282
115
Rush yards / game
125
255
Pass yards allowed
243
99
Rush yards allowed
110
0.8 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.6
2.2 / 2.2
Sacks allowed / made
1.4 / 2.6
17.0
First downs / game
21.3
43
Penalty yards / game
35
+2.1 · #21 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+7.1 · #3 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBLAR
5-9 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-9 · 36%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), TB 35 games, LAR 39. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2TBseriesLAR9
Avg total points
51.5
Meetings
11
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (10 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025TB 7 at LAR 34LAR
2022LAR 13 at TB 16TB
2021LAR 30 at TB 27PlayoffsLAR
2021TB 24 at LAR 34LAR
2020LAR 27 at TB 24LAR
2019TB 55 at LAR 40TB
2016LAR 37 at TB 32LAR
2015TB 23 at LAR 31LAR
All 11 meetings
2014LAR 19 at TB 17LAR
2013TB 13 at LAR 23LAR
2012LAR 28 at TB 13LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Emeka EgbukaWR12723.5%
Cade OttonTE8115.0%
Mike EvansWR6211.5%
Sterling ShepardWR539.8%
Chris Godwin Jr.WR519.4%
Rachaad WhiteRB458.3%
Tez JohnsonWR448.1%
Bucky IrvingRB356.5%
Jalen McMillanWR152.8%
Sean TuckerRB112.0%
Kameron JohnsonWR71.3%
Ryan MillerWR40.7%
Payne DurhamTE40.7%
Devin CulpTE10.2%
Tristan WirfsOT10.2%
Puka NacuaWR20829.8%
Davante AdamsWR13919.9%
Colby ParkinsonTE7010.0%
Kyren WilliamsRB598.5%
Tyler HigbeeTE426.0%
Davis AllenTE334.7%
Terrance FergusonTE314.4%
Konata MumpfieldWR294.2%
Jordan WhittingtonWR273.9%
Xavier SmithWR243.4%
Blake CorumRB192.7%
Tutu AtwellWR152.2%
Ronnie RiversRB10.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
