RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 10, 2023
Brad Rogers
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.9
≈ in line with the league average (12.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
99.5
≈ in line with the league average (100.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.6
≈ in line with the league average (10.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 541 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
ATL offensevsNO defense
ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 4 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#21
−0.02
Stronger#12
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#20
−0.12
Stronger#4
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
34%
#29
35%
Stronger#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
62%
#10
53%
slight#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.5%
#5slight
8.0%
#7
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#9Stronger
1.18
#15
NO offensevsATL defense
NO offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · ATL defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#27
+0.00
Stronger#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.15
#31
−0.02
Stronger#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.· even
40%
#17
40%
#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
44%
#32
55%
Stronger#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 18 places
7.3%
#22
9.1%
Stronger#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#28
1.24
Stronger#11
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
ATL offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.01#21▲
−0.02#12▼
Pass success rate
45%#16
43%#11
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
8.1%#14▼
8.3%#19▼
Yards / dropback
6.2#15
5.8#12▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.7
8.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−3.2#28▼
−0.3#14▼
YAC / completionfavors ATL
5.6#5
5.2#19
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ATL scores 58% · allows 46%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLNO
8-9
Record
6-11
20.8
Points for / game
18.0
23.6
Points against / game
22.5
4-4 / 4-5
Home / road
3-5 / 3-6
W W W W L
Last 5
L W W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLNO
-0.014
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.069
-0.002
EPA / play allowed
-0.066
218
Pass yards / game
237
126
Rush yards / game
94
222
Pass yards allowed
196
126
Rush yards allowed
121
0.8 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.2
1.5 / 3.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.9 / 2.6
17.5
First downs / game
16.7
48
Penalty yards / game
54
−0.0 · #30 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.5 · #28 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ATLNO
6-10 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-20 · 23%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), ATL 34 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
13ATLseriesNO16
Avg total points
47.9
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. ATL have won the last 3.
2026ATL 45 at NO 24ATL
2025NO 17 at ATL 19ATL
2025ATL 24 at NO 10ATL
2024ATL 17 at NO 20NO
2024NO 24 at ATL 26ATL
2023ATL 17 at NO 48NO
2023NO 15 at ATL 24ATL
2022ATL 18 at NO 21NO
All 29 meetings
2022NO 27 at ATL 26NO
2021NO 30 at ATL 20NO
2021ATL 27 at NO 25ATL
2020NO 21 at ATL 16NO
2020ATL 9 at NO 24NO
2019NO 26 at ATL 18NO
2019ATL 26 at NO 9ATL
2018ATL 17 at NO 31NO
2018NO 43 at ATL 37NO
2017ATL 13 at NO 23NO
2017NO 17 at ATL 20ATL
2016NO 32 at ATL 38ATL
2016ATL 45 at NO 32ATL
2015NO 20 at ATL 17NO
2015ATL 21 at NO 31NO
2014ATL 30 at NO 14ATL
2014NO 34 at ATL 37ATL
2013NO 17 at ATL 13NO
2013ATL 17 at NO 23NO
2012NO 13 at ATL 23ATL
2012ATL 27 at NO 31NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kyle PittsTE11822.7%
Drake LondonWR11221.6%
Bijan RobinsonRB10319.8%
Darnell MooneyWR7213.9%
David SillsWR366.9%
Tyler AllgeierRB163.1%
Casey WashingtonWR142.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR142.7%
Dylan DrummondWR112.1%
KhaDarel HodgeWR101.9%
Charlie WoernerTE91.7%
Deven ThompkinsWR30.6%
Jake MatthewsOT10.2%
Chris OlaveWR15627.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE10218.1%
Rashid ShaheedWR6611.7%
Devaughn VeleWR396.9%
Alvin KamaraRB396.9%
Brandin CooksWR254.4%
Kevin Austin Jr.WR234.1%
Devin NealRB193.4%
Mason TiptonWR173.0%
Taysom HillTE162.8%
Audric EstiméRB132.3%
Dante PettisWR111.9%
Jack StollTE111.9%
Foster MoreauTE101.8%
Kendre MillerRB50.9%
Ronnie BellWR40.7%
Samori ToureWR30.5%
Spencer RattlerQB20.4%
Moliki MatavaoTE20.4%
Evan HullRB10.2%
Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE10.2%
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
