RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 24, 2023
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.8
≈ in line with the league average (12.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
103.2
≈ in line with the league average (101.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.3
≈ in line with the league average (10.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 493 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CAR offensevsATL defense
CAR offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
−0.03
#26
+0.00
Stronger#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#17Stronger
−0.02
#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#25
40%
Stronger#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#15
55%
slight#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.9%
#14
9.1%
Stronger#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 12 places
1.28
#23
1.24
Stronger#11
ATL offensevsCAR defense
ATL offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · CAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#21slight
+0.12
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#20Stronger
+0.01
#27
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
34%
#29slight
46%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
62%
#10Stronger
58%
#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 22 places
4.5%
#5Stronger
5.1%
#27
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#9Stronger
1.11
#20
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CAR offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors ATL
−0.03#26▼
+0.00#13▼
Pass success ratefavors ATL
44%#23
45%#15
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.7%#17▼
8.5%#21
Yards / dropbackfavors ATL
5.7#27
6.0#13
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.9
8.7
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
46%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors ATL
+0.9#14▼
−2.2#7▼
YAC / completionfavors ATL
5.0#18
4.9#12
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ATL
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CAR scores 50% · allows 54%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CAR2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed1.5
Pass share41%
61 plays · too few games for a range
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CAR7 games
Scored9.4
Allowed12.6
Pass share51%
46–56% · 192 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CAR8 games
Scored12.3
Allowed12.0
Pass share58%
47–69% · 270 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
6.6
8.1Q2
10.6scored12.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.6
4.6Q3
4.9
6.4Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CARATL
8-10
Record
8-9
19.0
Points for / game
20.8
23.0
Points against / game
23.6
5-4 / 3-6
Home / road
4-4 / 4-5
L L L W L
Last 5
W W W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CARATL
-0.048
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.014
0.057
EPA / play allowed
-0.002
198
Pass yards / game
218
114
Rush yards / game
126
220
Pass yards allowed
222
123
Rush yards allowed
126
1.1 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.6
2.1 / 1.7
Sacks allowed / made
1.5 / 3.4
16.4
First downs / game
17.5
44
Penalty yards / game
48
−1.2 · #35 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.4 · #24 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CARATL
13-19 · 41%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CAR 35 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
14CARseriesATL15
Avg total points
45.0
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. CAR have won the last 4.
2026CAR 34 at ATL 3CAR
2025CAR 30 at ATL 27CAR
2025ATL 0 at CAR 30CAR
2024CAR 44 at ATL 38CAR
2024ATL 38 at CAR 20ATL
2023ATL 7 at CAR 9CAR
2023CAR 10 at ATL 24ATL
2022ATL 15 at CAR 25CAR
All 29 meetings
2022CAR 34 at ATL 37ATL
2021ATL 29 at CAR 21ATL
2021CAR 19 at ATL 13CAR
2020ATL 25 at CAR 17ATL
2020CAR 23 at ATL 16CAR
2019CAR 20 at ATL 40ATL
2019ATL 29 at CAR 3ATL
2018ATL 24 at CAR 10ATL
2018CAR 24 at ATL 31ATL
2017CAR 10 at ATL 22ATL
2017ATL 17 at CAR 20CAR
2016ATL 33 at CAR 16ATL
2016CAR 33 at ATL 48ATL
2015CAR 13 at ATL 20ATL
2015ATL 0 at CAR 38CAR
2014CAR 34 at ATL 3CAR
2014ATL 19 at CAR 17ATL
2013CAR 21 at ATL 20CAR
2013ATL 10 at CAR 34CAR
2012ATL 20 at CAR 30CAR
2012CAR 28 at ATL 30ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tetairoa McMillanWR12925.0%
Xavier LegetteWR6813.2%
Jalen CokerWR5510.6%
Rico DowdleRB5210.1%
Chuba HubbardRB438.3%
Tommy TrembleTE407.7%
Ja'Tavion SandersTE346.6%
Mitchell EvansTE265.0%
Hunter RenfrowWR265.0%
Brycen TremayneWR193.7%
Jimmy Horn Jr.WR173.3%
James MitchellTE40.8%
Trevor EtienneRB30.6%
David MooreWR10.2%
Kyle PittsTE11822.7%
Drake LondonWR11221.6%
Bijan RobinsonRB10319.8%
Darnell MooneyWR7213.9%
David SillsWR366.9%
Tyler AllgeierRB163.1%
Casey WashingtonWR142.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR142.7%
Dylan DrummondWR112.1%
KhaDarel HodgeWR101.9%
Charlie WoernerTE91.7%
Deven ThompkinsWR30.6%
Jake MatthewsOT10.2%
Carolina Panthers2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
