RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 17, 2023
Shawn Hochuli
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
103.7
≈ in line with the league average (101.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.5
≈ in line with the league average (10.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 494 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
BAL offensevsMIN defense
BAL offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.02
#20
−0.12
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#3Stronger
−0.08
#13
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#12
35%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
47%
#27
43%
Stronger#1
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 24 places
9.0%
#27
9.3%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.29
#25
1.18
Stronger#16
MIN offensevsBAL defense
MIN offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · BAL defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.16
#29
+0.09
Stronger#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#18
−0.09
Stronger#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
32%
#31
38%
Stronger#11
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#17
51%
Stronger#4
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.· even
10.5%
#31
4.3%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.65
#32
1.12
Stronger#19
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
BAL offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.02#20▲
−0.12#2▼
Pass success ratefavors MIN
47%#12
40%#3▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
8.8%#11▼
6.1%#1▼
Yards / dropback
6.6#11
5.6#6▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.2
6.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+3.0#6▲
−4.4#4▼
YAC / completion
4.9#22
5.3#22
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MIN
9.0%#27
9.3%#3▲
Scramble rate
7.4%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.6%#24▼
1.8%#21▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 35 · M 24 · R 41
L 39 · M 23 · R 37
MIN offenseBAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors BAL
−0.16#29▼
+0.09#21▲
Pass success ratefavors BAL
42%#28
46%#18
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.0%#24▼
9.8%#28▲
Yards / dropbackfavors BAL
5.4#28
6.5#22
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.8
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
51%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.9#27▲
+2.4#27▲
YAC / completion
5.1#15
4.8#10
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
10.5%#31▲
4.3%#31▲
Scramble rate
4.9%
5.6%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors BAL
4.3%#32▼
1.8%#23
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 18 · R 46
L 37 · M 21 · R 42
Baltimore Ravens · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BAL scores 53% · allows 46%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BAL9 games
Scored11.3
Allowed11.1
Pass share35%
27–43% · 237 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BAL3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share47%
32–62% · 94 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BAL5 games
Scored12.0
Allowed10.6
Pass share47%
41–53% · 157 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.0
3.9Q1
7.6
5.9Q2
12.6scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.0
5.4Q3
6.4
6.1Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BALMIN
8-9
Record
9-8
24.9
Points for / game
20.2
23.4
Points against / game
19.6
3-6 / 5-3
Home / road
4-4 / 5-4
L W L W L
Last 5
W W W W W
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BALMIN
0.048
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.120
0.018
EPA / play allowed
-0.087
193
Pass yards / game
189
157
Rush yards / game
108
259
Pass yards allowed
178
107
Rush yards allowed
124
1.1 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.5
2.6 / 1.8
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 2.9
16.9
First downs / game
15.2
44
Penalty yards / game
52
+3.0 · #18 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−4.7 · #43 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BALMIN
1-3 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-6 · 57%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), BAL 36 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3BALseriesMIN1
Avg total points
51.5
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). BAL have won the last 2.
2025BAL 27 at MIN 19BAL
2021MIN 31 at BAL 34BAL
2017BAL 16 at MIN 24MIN
2013MIN 26 at BAL 29BAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Zay FlowersWR11829.0%
Mark AndrewsTE7017.2%
DeAndre HopkinsWR399.6%
Rashod BatemanWR389.3%
Isaiah LikelyTE368.8%
Justice HillRB276.6%
Derrick HenryRB215.2%
Charlie KolarTE153.7%
Keaton MitchellRB122.9%
Rasheen AliRB112.7%
Devontez WalkerWR82.0%
Tylan WallaceWR82.0%
Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE20.5%
Patrick RicardRB20.5%
Justin JeffersonWR14130.1%
Jordan AddisonWR7916.9%
T.J. HockensonTE6614.1%
Jalen NailorWR5311.3%
Aaron JonesRB418.8%
Josh OliverTE194.1%
Adam ThielenWR183.8%
Jordan MasonRB163.4%
Zavier ScottRB163.4%
Ben SimsTE61.3%
Ty ChandlerRB40.9%
Ben YurosekTE30.6%
Tai FeltonWR30.6%
C.J. HamFB20.4%
Cam AkersRB10.2%
Baltimore Ravens2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
