RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 5, 2023
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.1
≈ in line with the league average (12.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
106.9
≈ in line with the league average (99.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.8)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 496 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CHI offensevsLV defense
CHI offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.12
#9Stronger
+0.11
#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.00
#6Stronger
−0.07
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
44%
#6Stronger
47%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#16slight
59%
#20
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
3.4%
#1Stronger
6.3%
#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 20 places
0.84
#4Stronger
0.94
#24
LV offensevsCHI defense
LV offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · CHI defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.17
#30
+0.07
Stronger#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.30
#32
−0.03
Stronger#19
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
34%
#28
40%
Stronger#16
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#26
59%
slight#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
10.7%
#32
5.8%
Stronger#21
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 23 places
1.29
#24
1.74
Stronger#1
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CHI offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CHI
+0.12#9▼
+0.11#23▼
Pass success rate
45%#18
48%#23
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
10.2%#7
6.3%#2▼
Yards / dropback
6.6#10
6.1#15▼
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.9
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
16%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
44%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
−3.9#30▼
+1.9#22▼
YAC / completion
5.5#8
4.7#9
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CHI
3.4%#1▼
6.3%#18▲
Scramble rate
6.9%
5.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors CHI
1.8%#9▲
1.5%#26▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 31 · M 23 · R 46
L 44 · M 21 · R 35
LV offenseCHI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CHI
−0.17#30▼
+0.07#19▲
Pass success ratefavors CHI
41%#29
47%#20
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.4%#29
10.6%#32
Yards / dropback
5.0#29
6.8#27
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.3
8.6
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
60%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
−1.0#22▼
+2.9#29▼
YAC / completion
5.3#11
4.9#14▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CHI
10.7%#32
5.8%#21
Scramble rate
3.7%
4.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors CHI
3.7%#30▲
3.7%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 19 · R 44
L 36 · M 25 · R 40
Chicago Bears · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CHI scores 39% · allows 53%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHILVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CHI5 games
Scored15.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share37%
32–41% · 172 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CHI5 games
Scored14.2
Allowed9.0
Pass share48%
42–54% · 182 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CHI7 games
Scored17.9
Allowed11.0
Pass share64%
60–69% · 257 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CHIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
6.4
3.6Q1
3.9
8.1Q2
10.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.2
3.7Q3
9.6
6.3Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CHILV
12-7
Record
3-14
25.7
Points for / game
14.2
24.3
Points against / game
25.4
7-3 / 5-4
Home / road
2-7 / 1-7
L W L L W
Last 5
W L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CHILV
0.068
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.216
0.031
EPA / play allowed
0.010
243
Pass yards / game
195
143
Rush yards / game
77
245
Pass yards allowed
214
131
Rush yards allowed
117
0.7 / 2.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.1
1.3 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
3.8 / 2.1
19.8
First downs / game
13.4
53
Penalty yards / game
53
+3.5 · #16 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.0 · #44 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CHILV
8-17 · 32%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-24 · 14%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), CHI 36 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4CHIseriesLV1
Avg total points
41.4
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). CHI have won the last 3.
2025CHI 25 at LV 24CHI
2023LV 12 at CHI 30CHI
2021CHI 20 at LV 9CHI
2019CHI 21 vs LV 24LV
2015LV 20 at CHI 22CHI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Colston LovelandTE10717.3%
Rome OdunzeWR10216.5%
DJ MooreWR10016.1%
Luther Burden IIIWR7411.9%
Olamide ZaccheausWR6911.1%
Cole KmetTE538.5%
D'Andre SwiftRB508.1%
Kyle MonangaiRB376.0%
Jahdae WalkerWR101.6%
Durham SmytheTE91.5%
Devin DuvernayWR50.8%
Caleb WilliamsQB20.3%
Brittain BrownRB10.2%
Theo BenedetOL10.2%
Tre TuckerWR9218.6%
Brock BowersTE8617.4%
Ashton JeantyRB7314.8%
Michael MayerTE5010.1%
Jakobi MeyersWR499.9%
Tyler LockettWR346.9%
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR306.1%
Jack BechWR295.9%
Ian ThomasTE132.6%
Raheem MostertRB122.4%
Zamir WhiteRB61.2%
Albert OkwuegbunamTE61.2%
Shedrick JacksonWR51.0%
Dylan LaubeRB40.8%
Alex BachmanWR30.6%
Carter RunyonTE10.2%
Alex CappaG10.2%
Chicago Bears2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
