RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 29, 2023
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.1
≈ in line with the league average (12.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
109.7
≈ in line with the league average (98.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.7)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 480 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DEN offensevsIND defense
DEN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#12Stronger
+0.06
#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#19
−0.09
Stronger#8
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
41%
#13Stronger
43%
#25
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
56%
#22
54%
Stronger#10
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 22 places
3.4%
#2Stronger
5.6%
#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.95
#11
1.24
slight#10
IND offensevsDEN defense
IND offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 4 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#11
−0.07
slight#7
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#2Stronger
−0.09
#10
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#7
36%
slight#6
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
65%
#6
44%
slight#3
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.8%
#7
9.9%
Stronger#1
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#21slight
0.95
#22
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DEN offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
+0.08#12▼
+0.06#18▲
Pass success rate
43%#24
47%#21
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.4%#19
8.2%#18▲
Yards / dropback
6.0#19
6.4#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.2
7.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
61%
50%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors IND
−1.7#23▼
−0.4#12▲
YAC / completion
5.3#13
4.9#13
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DEN
3.4%#2▲
5.6%#24▼
Scramble rate
5.5%
4.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DEN
1.9%#10
2.3%#16
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 16 · R 44
L 34 · M 21 · R 45
IND offenseDEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.08#11▼
−0.07#7▼
Pass success ratefavors DEN
47%#10
38%#2
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DEN
7.3%#21▼
6.5%#4
Yards / dropbackfavors DEN
6.8#9
5.0#1
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.0
8.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
+0.6#17▼
−3.3#5▼
YAC / completionfavors DEN
5.0#17
4.6#6
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DEN
4.8%#7
9.9%#1
Scramble rate
4.2%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.6%#22▲
1.9%#20▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 41 · M 20 · R 38
L 37 · M 19 · R 44
Denver Broncos · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENIND
15-4
Record
8-9
23.2
Points for / game
27.4
18.5
Points against / game
24.2
9-2 / 6-2
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
L W W W L
Last 5
L L L L L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENIND
0.026
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.080
-0.081
EPA / play allowed
0.007
229
Pass yards / game
240
114
Rush yards / game
118
209
Pass yards allowed
262
99
Rush yards allowed
102
0.8 / 1.3
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
1.4 / 4.0
Sacks allowed / made
1.7 / 2.3
17.7
First downs / game
18.9
62
Penalty yards / game
51
+4.2 · #14 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.9 · #6 of 52
2025 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENIND
6-10 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), DEN 37 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4DENseriesIND6
Avg total points
45.7
Meetings
10
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025DEN 28 at IND 29IND
2024IND 13 at DEN 31DEN
2022IND 12 at DEN 9IND
2019DEN 13 at IND 15IND
2017DEN 25 at IND 13DEN
2016IND 20 at DEN 34DEN
2015DEN 24 at IND 27IND
2014IND 24 at DEN 13PlayoffsIND
All 10 meetings
2014IND 24 at DEN 31DEN
2013DEN 33 at IND 39IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Courtland SuttonWR13821.1%
Troy FranklinWR10415.9%
Evan EngramTE8212.6%
RJ HarveyRB7010.7%
Marvin Mims Jr.WR6510.0%
Pat BryantWR538.1%
Tyler BadieRB335.1%
Adam TrautmanTE253.8%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR233.5%
J.K. DobbinsRB142.1%
Nate AdkinsTE121.8%
Jaleel McLaughlinRB91.4%
Adam PrenticeFB91.4%
Lucas KrullTE40.6%
Michael BandyWR40.6%
Trent SherfieldWR40.6%
Elijah MooreWR10.2%
Frank CrumOT10.2%
Bo NixQB10.2%
Garett BollesOT10.2%
Tyler WarrenTE11221.1%
Michael PittmanWR11120.9%
Josh DownsWR8816.6%
Alec PierceWR8415.8%
Jonathan TaylorRB5510.4%
Mo Alie-CoxTE203.8%
Ameer AbdullahRB173.2%
Adonai MitchellWR163.0%
Ashton DulinWR101.9%
Andrew OgletreeTE61.1%
Tyler GoodsonRB30.6%
Anthony GouldWR20.4%
DJ GiddensRB20.4%
Bernhard RaimannOT10.2%
Coleman OwenWR10.2%
Anthony RichardsonQB10.2%
Will MalloryTE10.2%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
