RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 8, 2023
Land Clark
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.5
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
95.2
≈ in line with the league average (97.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 507 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TB offensevsATL defense
TB offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#15
+0.00
slight#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
−0.08
#24
−0.02
#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#11Stronger
40%
#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#23
55%
Stronger#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#15
9.1%
Stronger#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#8slight
1.24
#11
ATL offensevsTB defense
ATL offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TB defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#21
+0.09
slight#20
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#20
−0.11
Stronger#5
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
34%
#29
40%
Stronger#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
62%
#10Stronger
70%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 17 places
4.5%
#5Stronger
5.8%
#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#9
1.29
slight#8
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TB offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:TB scores 50% · allows 55%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
TBATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TB5 games
Scored12.8
Allowed10.4
Pass share46%
36–56% · 130 plays
ATL6 games
Scored9.7
Allowed13.0
Pass share38%
26–49% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TB6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed14.8
Pass share51%
47–56% · 177 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TB6 games
Scored8.7
Allowed7.5
Pass share69%
61–76% · 188 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
TBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.4
4.8Q1
6.2
8.4Q2
10.5scored13.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
5.0Q3
4.6
5.9Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.8
4.8Q1
7.5
6.4Q2
12.4scored11.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.3
5.5Q3
5.6
6.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TBATL
8-9
Record
8-9
22.4
Points for / game
20.8
24.2
Points against / game
23.6
4-4 / 4-5
Home / road
4-4 / 4-5
W L L L L
Last 5
W W W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TBATL
-0.010
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.014
0.019
EPA / play allowed
-0.002
221
Pass yards / game
218
115
Rush yards / game
126
255
Pass yards allowed
222
99
Rush yards allowed
126
0.8 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.6
2.2 / 2.2
Sacks allowed / made
1.5 / 3.4
17.0
First downs / game
17.5
43
Penalty yards / game
48
+2.1 · #21 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.4 · #24 of 52
2025 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TBATL
5-9 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
6-10 · 38%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), TB 35 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
13TBseriesATL15
Avg total points
53.8
Meetings
28
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2025ATL 29 at TB 28ATL
2025TB 23 at ATL 20TB
2024ATL 31 at TB 26ATL
2024TB 30 at ATL 36ATL
2023TB 29 at ATL 25TB
2023ATL 16 at TB 13ATL
2022TB 17 at ATL 30ATL
2022ATL 15 at TB 21TB
All 28 meetings
2021TB 30 at ATL 17TB
2021ATL 25 at TB 48TB
2020ATL 27 at TB 44TB
2020TB 31 at ATL 27TB
2019ATL 28 at TB 22ATL
2019TB 35 at ATL 22TB
2018ATL 34 at TB 32ATL
2018TB 29 at ATL 34ATL
2017ATL 24 at TB 21ATL
2017TB 20 at ATL 34ATL
2016ATL 43 at TB 28ATL
2016TB 31 at ATL 24TB
2015ATL 19 at TB 23TB
2015TB 23 at ATL 20TB
2014ATL 27 at TB 17ATL
2014TB 14 at ATL 56ATL
2013ATL 28 at TB 41TB
2013TB 23 at ATL 31ATL
2012TB 22 at ATL 17TB
2012ATL 24 at TB 23ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Emeka EgbukaWR12723.5%
Cade OttonTE8115.0%
Mike EvansWR6211.5%
Sterling ShepardWR539.8%
Chris Godwin Jr.WR519.4%
Rachaad WhiteRB458.3%
Tez JohnsonWR448.1%
Bucky IrvingRB356.5%
Jalen McMillanWR152.8%
Sean TuckerRB112.0%
Kameron JohnsonWR71.3%
Ryan MillerWR40.7%
Payne DurhamTE40.7%
Devin CulpTE10.2%
Tristan WirfsOT10.2%
Kyle PittsTE11822.7%
Drake LondonWR11221.6%
Bijan RobinsonRB10319.8%
Darnell MooneyWR7213.9%
David SillsWR366.9%
Tyler AllgeierRB163.1%
Casey WashingtonWR142.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR142.7%
Dylan DrummondWR112.1%
KhaDarel HodgeWR101.9%
Charlie WoernerTE91.7%
Deven ThompkinsWR30.6%
Jake MatthewsOT10.2%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
