RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 8, 2023
Ron Torbert
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.9
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
106.3
≈ in line with the league average (97.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.2
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 504 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · grassStadium scoring factor 98 (20th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 92 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
KC offensevsPHI defense
KC offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · PHI defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#10
−0.07
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#14
−0.17
Stronger#1
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#3slight
37%
#5
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#19
49%
Stronger#6
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#18
7.1%
Stronger#10
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.90
#9
1.71
Stronger#2
PHI offensevsKC defense
PHI offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · KC defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
+0.18
#6Stronger
+0.10
#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#4Stronger
−0.09
#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#10Stronger
43%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
58%
#11
54%
#11
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 15 places
8.9%
#31
6.7%
Stronger#16
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 15 places
0.62
#2Stronger
1.00
#17
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
KC offensePHI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors PHI
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:KC scores 47% · allows 52%PHI scores 59% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCPHIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
KC4 games
Scored12.8
Allowed7.5
Pass share43%
31–56% · 127 plays
PHI9 games
Scored7.6
Allowed10.6
Pass share44%
34–54% · 236 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
KC10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share61%
55–67% · 280 plays
PHI6 games
Scored8.0
Allowed12.2
Pass share56%
46–66% · 171 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
KC3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed7.7
Pass share57%
48–66% · 114 plays
PHI2 games · small sample
Scored12.5
Allowed13.0
Pass share71%
63 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 10 · trailed 3 (of 17)
4.9
3.9Q1
5.7
6.1Q2
10.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
3.7Q3
7.0
5.5Q4
PHIat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.4
3.9Q1
7.8
4.2Q2
12.2scored8.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.1Q3
4.4
8.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
KCPHI
17-3
Record
18-3
23.1
Points for / game
29.0
20.4
Points against / game
18.1
10-0 / 7-3
Home / road
12-1 / 6-2
L W W L W
Last 5
W W W W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 20–21 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
KCPHI
0.051
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.104
0.025
EPA / play allowed
-0.085
236
Pass yards / game
202
101
Rush yards / game
184
234
Pass yards allowed
207
108
Rush yards allowed
102
0.8 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.5 / 2.3
2.6 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.8 / 2.7
18.6
First downs / game
19.2
48
Penalty yards / game
46
+5.2 · #11 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+6.4 · #9 of 49
2024 season to date · 20–21 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
KCPHI
5-2 · 71%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-2 · 71%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), KC 41 games, PHI 39. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4KCseriesPHI3
Avg total points
53.0
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). PHI have won the last 3.
2025PHI 20 at KC 17PHI
2024KC 22 vs PHI 40Super BowlPHI
2023PHI 21 at KC 17PHI
2022KC 38 vs PHI 35Super BowlKC
2021KC 42 at PHI 30KC
2017PHI 20 at KC 27KC
2013KC 26 at PHI 16KC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Travis KelceTE15123.2%
Xavier WorthyWR11918.3%
DeAndre HopkinsWR6710.3%
Noah GrayTE538.1%
Samaje PerineRB385.8%
Kareem HuntRB355.4%
Justin WatsonWR324.9%
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR324.9%
Rashee RiceWR294.5%
Marquise BrownWR284.3%
Isiah PachecoRB213.2%
Mecole HardmanWR142.2%
Carson SteeleRB111.7%
Nikko RemigioWR60.9%
Peyton HendershotTE50.8%
Joseph FortsonTE30.5%
Skyy MooreWR30.5%
Patrick MahomesQB10.2%
Justyn RossWR10.2%
Baylor CuppTE10.2%
Jared WileyTE10.2%
A.J. BrownWR12023.9%
DeVonta SmithWR10621.1%
Dallas GoedertTE7214.3%
Saquon BarkleyRB5811.5%
Jahan DotsonWR387.6%
Grant CalcaterraTE316.2%
Kenny GainwellRB255.0%
Johnny WilsonWR163.2%
Ainias SmithWR91.8%
Parris CampbellWR81.6%
Britain CoveyWR81.6%
Will ShipleyRB40.8%
Jack StollTE30.6%
John RossWR20.4%
E.J. JenkinsTE20.4%
Ben VanSumerenRB10.2%
Kansas City Chiefs2024–25 seasons
Philadelphia Eagles2024–25 seasons
