RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Oct 1, 2023
Ron Torbert
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.2
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
108.5
≈ in line with the league average (98.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 514 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
WSH offensevsDET defense
WSH offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.20
#5slight
−0.02
#7
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#5Stronger
−0.08
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#7
32%
Stronger#1
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#7slight
54%
#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.9%
#20Stronger
5.1%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.85
#7slight
1.33
#12
DET offensevsWSH defense
DET offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · WSH defense in 0 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
+0.25
#3Stronger
+0.07
#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
+0.06
#3Stronger
+0.01
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
47%
#4Stronger
39%
#15
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 24 places
68%
#3Stronger
64%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.· even
5.5%
#8
7.2%
#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#14slight
1.05
#16
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
WSH offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:WSH scores 48% · allows 50%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
WSH2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share39%
56 plays · too few games for a range
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
WSH5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed12.6
Pass share44%
32–56% · 134 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
WSH10 games
Scored10.5
Allowed14.2
Pass share55%
48–62% · 300 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.3
5.4Q1
7.3
8.9Q2
9.6scored14.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
7.2Q3
5.5
6.4Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHDET
14-6
Record
15-3
28.8
Points for / game
33.1
24.9
Points against / game
21.5
7-2 / 7-4
Home / road
7-3 / 8-0
L W W W W
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHDET
0.134
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.157
0.034
EPA / play allowed
-0.009
239
Pass yards / game
281
149
Rush yards / game
149
213
Pass yards allowed
261
143
Rush yards allowed
103
0.8 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
2.7 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
20.6
First downs / game
23.1
54
Penalty yards / game
56
+8.0 · #4 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+9.0 · #3 of 49
2024 season to date · 18–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
WSHDET
8-14 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-3 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), WSH 37 games, DET 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2WSHseriesDET5
Avg total points
54.4
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025DET 44 at WSH 22DET
2024WSH 45 at DET 31PlayoffsWSH
2022WSH 27 at DET 36DET
2020WSH 27 at DET 30DET
2019DET 16 at WSH 19WSH
2016WSH 17 at DET 20DET
2013DET 27 at WSH 20DET
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Terry McLaurinWR14022.9%
Zach ErtzTE11619.0%
Olamide ZaccheausWR7412.1%
Dyami BrownWR589.5%
Noah BrownWR569.2%
Austin EkelerRB569.2%
Brian RobinsonRB304.9%
Luke McCaffreyWR254.1%
Jamison CrowderWR182.9%
John BatesTE182.9%
Jeremy McNicholsRB122.0%
Ben SinnottTE61.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB10.2%
Brycen TremayneWR10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR15127.0%
Jameson WilliamsWR9517.0%
Sam LaPortaTE9016.1%
Jahmyr GibbsRB7413.2%
Tim PatrickWR488.6%
David MontgomeryRB386.8%
Kalif RaymondWR254.5%
Brock WrightTE162.9%
Allen RobinsonWR71.3%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.9%
Sione VakiRB30.5%
Isaiah WilliamsWR30.5%
Tom KennedyWR10.2%
Jermar JeffersonRB10.2%
Jared GoffQB10.2%
Shane ZylstraTE10.2%
Washington Commanders2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
