RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 17, 2023
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.6
≈ in line with the league average (12.1)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
103.7
≈ in line with the league average (98.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.0
≈ in line with the league average (9.7)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 526 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
SF offensevsARI defense
SF offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.14
#8Stronger
+0.09
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.03
#12Stronger
−0.01
#26
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
43%
#9Stronger
44%
#28
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#14
53%
Stronger#7
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.9%
#13slight
6.6%
#17
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#27
0.94
slight#23
ARI offensevsSF defense
ARI offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · SF defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.11
#11Stronger
+0.07
#17
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
+0.00
#8Stronger
+0.01
#29
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
43%
#8Stronger
43%
#25
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#17Stronger
68%
#31
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.9%
#5Stronger
6.5%
#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#20slight
0.94
#21
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
SF offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors SF
+0.14#8▲
+0.09#24
Pass success ratefavors SF
50%#6
49%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors SF
10.8%#3
7.8%#13▲
Yards / dropbackfavors SF
7.5#4
6.4#21
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.6
6.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
46%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors SF
+1.7#14▲
+3.3#25▼
YAC / completion
5.3#16
5.2#14
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.9%#13
6.6%#17▼
Scramble rate
7.9%
6.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.0%#28▲
1.7%#26
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 27 · R 34
L 34 · M 22 · R 44
ARI offenseSF defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors ARI
+0.11#11
+0.07#17▲
Pass success ratefavors ARI
50%#5
47%#19
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors SF
7.7%#20
7.0%#3▲
Yards / dropback
6.5#14
6.1#10
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.8
7.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
10%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
55%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors ARI
+2.2#12▲
+1.9#20▲
YAC / completion
5.3#15
5.3#17
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ARI
4.9%#5
6.5%#18▼
Scramble rate
6.7%
3.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.0%#14▲
2.1%#19▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 43 · M 19 · R 38
L 38 · M 17 · R 45
San Francisco 49ers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:SF scores 47% · allows 50%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
SF9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed12.7
Pass share41%
35–46% · 272 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
SF4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed4.3
Pass share43%
36–49% · 127 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
SF4 games
Scored6.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
52–73% · 107 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
5.8
5.7Q1
7.0
5.2Q2
12.8scored10.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.2
6.8Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SFARI
6-11
Record
8-9
22.9
Points for / game
23.5
25.6
Points against / game
22.3
4-5 / 2-6
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
L L L L W
Last 5
W L L W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
SFARI
0.065
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.083
0.040
EPA / play allowed
0.061
260
Pass yards / game
227
127
Rush yards / game
144
204
Pass yards allowed
231
125
Rush yards allowed
126
1.2 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.5
2.1 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
1.8 / 2.4
19.1
First downs / game
19.2
50
Penalty yards / game
47
−5.1 · #41 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.9 · #12 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SFARI
0-4 · 0%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-18 · 33%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), SF 37 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
15SFseriesARI14
Avg total points
45.8
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. SF have won the last 3.
2026ARI 30 at SF 36SF
2025SF 41 at ARI 22SF
2025ARI 15 at SF 16SF
2024SF 24 at ARI 47ARI
2024ARI 24 at SF 23ARI
2023SF 45 at ARI 29SF
2023ARI 16 at SF 35SF
2022ARI 13 at SF 38SF
All 29 meetings
2022SF 38 vs ARI 10SF
2021ARI 31 at SF 17ARI
2021SF 10 at ARI 17ARI
2020SF 20 at ARI 12SF
2020ARI 24 at SF 20ARI
2019ARI 26 at SF 36SF
2019SF 28 at ARI 25SF
2018SF 15 at ARI 18ARI
2018ARI 28 at SF 18ARI
2017ARI 20 at SF 10ARI
2017SF 15 at ARI 18ARI
2016SF 20 at ARI 23ARI
2016ARI 33 at SF 21ARI
2015ARI 19 at SF 13ARI
2015SF 7 at ARI 47ARI
2014ARI 17 at SF 20SF
2014SF 14 at ARI 23ARI
2013SF 23 at ARI 20SF
2013ARI 20 at SF 32SF
2012ARI 13 at SF 27SF
2012SF 24 at ARI 3SF
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jauan JenningsWR11322.0%
George KittleTE9418.3%
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR8115.8%
Brandon AiyukWR479.2%
Ricky PearsallWR469.0%
Kyle JuszczykFB316.0%
Christian McCaffreyRB193.7%
Isaac GuerendoRB163.1%
Jordan MasonRB142.7%
Eric SaubertTE142.7%
Chris ConleyWR122.3%
Patrick TaylorRB112.1%
Jacob CowingWR61.2%
Ronnie BellWR61.2%
Brayden WillisTE20.4%
Trent TaylorWR10.2%
Trey McBrideTE14728.1%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR11622.2%
Michael WilsonWR7113.6%
James ConnerRB5510.5%
Greg DortchWR509.6%
Elijah HigginsTE244.6%
Emari DemercadoRB203.8%
Zay JonesWR112.1%
Michael CarterRB112.1%
Tip ReimanTE71.3%
Trey BensonRB61.1%
DeeJay DallasRB30.6%
Xavier WeaverWR20.4%
San Francisco 49ers2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
