RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 10, 2023
Shawn Hochuli
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.3
≈ in line with the league average (12.0)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
99.5
≈ in line with the league average (98.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsLV defense
JAX offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 1 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
−0.00
#21
+0.09
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#13slight
−0.08
#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#22
40%
slight#19
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
59%
#10Stronger
61%
#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 16 places
5.3%
#6Stronger
6.1%
#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#24slight
0.76
#29
LV offensevsJAX defense
LV offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#27slight
+0.23
#32
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 8 places
−0.28
#32
−0.01
Stronger#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#29
43%
slight#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26
59%
Stronger#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.1%
#21Stronger
5.2%
#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.71
#30slight
0.47
#32
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.00#21▲
+0.09#21▼
Pass success rate
43%#23
48%#24
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.1%#12
7.7%#12
Yards / dropback
6.1#20
6.3#15
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.4
6.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
−0.7#23▼
−0.9#7▼
YAC / completion
5.1#21
5.4#21
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors JAX
5.3%#6
6.1%#22
Scramble rate
4.5%
4.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.8%#27▼
1.8%#22
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 20 · R 43
L 39 · M 24 · R 37
LV offenseJAX defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXLV
4-13
Record
4-13
18.8
Points for / game
18.2
25.6
Points against / game
25.5
3-5 / 1-8
Home / road
2-6 / 2-7
L W L L W
Last 5
L W W L L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXLV
-0.011
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.145
0.118
EPA / play allowed
0.008
219
Pass yards / game
242
102
Rush yards / game
80
271
Pass yards allowed
235
133
Rush yards allowed
117
1.2 / 0.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 0.9
1.9 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.9 / 2.2
16.5
First downs / game
16.9
46
Penalty yards / game
47
+1.1 · #23 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #30 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXLV
4-15 · 21%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-19 · 21%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), JAX 34 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3JAXseriesLV4
Avg total points
43.0
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025JAX 30 at LV 29JAX
2024JAX 14 at LV 19LV
2022LV 20 at JAX 27JAX
2019JAX 20 at LV 16JAX
2016LV 33 at JAX 16LV
2013JAX 9 at LV 19LV
2012JAX 23 at LV 26LV
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brian Thomas Jr.WR13325.5%
Evan EngramTE6412.3%
Brenton StrangeTE5310.2%
Travis EtienneRB5210.0%
Parker WashingtonWR519.8%
Christian KirkWR479.0%
Gabe DavisWR428.0%
D'Ernest JohnsonRB193.6%
Luke FarrellTE173.3%
Devin DuvernayWR163.1%
Tank BigsbyRB122.3%
Tim JonesWR51.0%
Josh ReynoldsWR51.0%
Josiah DeguaraTE30.6%
Austin TrammellWR30.6%
Brock BowersTE15325.9%
Jakobi MeyersWR12921.8%
Tre TuckerWR8113.7%
Alexander MattisonRB488.1%
Ameer AbdullahRB478.0%
Michael MayerTE325.4%
DJ TurnerWR294.9%
Davante AdamsWR274.6%
Harrison BryantTE122.0%
Zamir WhiteRB81.4%
Sincere McCormickRB71.2%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR61.0%
Ramel KeytonWR30.5%
Alex BachmanWR30.5%
Kristian WilkersonWR30.5%
Chris CollierRB20.3%
John ShenkerTE10.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
