RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 24, 2022
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.8)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
100.1
≈ in line with the league average (96.3)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.4)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 566 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
ATL offensevsLV defense
ATL offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#16slight
+0.09
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#7Stronger
−0.08
#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#15slight
40%
#19
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#18slight
61%
#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 15 places
5.4%
#7Stronger
6.1%
#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#25slight
0.76
#29
LV offensevsATL defense
LV offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · ATL defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#27slight
+0.13
#28
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
−0.28
#32
−0.05
Stronger#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#29slight
45%
#31
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26slight
65%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.1%
#21Stronger
4.8%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 12 places
1.71
#30
1.00
Stronger#18
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
ATL offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.05#16▲
+0.09#21▼
Pass success ratefavors ATL
48%#14
48%#24
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.1%#13
7.7%#12
Yards / dropbackfavors ATL
6.9#7
6.3#15
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.0
6.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
45%
56%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
−0.1#20▼
−0.9#7▼
YAC / completionfavors ATL
5.4#11
5.4#21
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors ATL
5.4%#7▼
6.1%#22
Scramble rate
1.2%
4.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors LV
3.4%#29
1.8%#22
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 23 · R 39
L 39 · M 24 · R 37
LV offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:ATL scores 58% · allows 46%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLLV
8-9
Record
4-13
22.9
Points for / game
18.2
24.9
Points against / game
25.5
4-5 / 4-4
Home / road
2-6 / 2-7
L L W W L
Last 5
L W W L L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
ATLLV
0.032
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.145
0.060
EPA / play allowed
0.008
252
Pass yards / game
242
131
Rush yards / game
80
236
Pass yards allowed
235
121
Rush yards allowed
117
1.2 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 0.9
1.9 / 1.8
Sacks allowed / made
2.9 / 2.2
19.5
First downs / game
16.9
49
Penalty yards / game
47
+0.3 · #26 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #30 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
ATLLV
3-9 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-19 · 21%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), ATL 34 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4ATLseriesLV0
Avg total points
44.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). ATL have won the last 4.
2024ATL 15 at LV 9ATL
2020LV 6 at ATL 43ATL
2016ATL 35 at LV 28ATL
2012LV 20 at ATL 23ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Drake LondonWR15829.3%
Darnell MooneyWR10619.7%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR8716.1%
Kyle PittsTE7413.7%
Bijan RobinsonRB7213.4%
Tyler AllgeierRB132.4%
KhaDarel HodgeWR122.2%
Charlie WoernerTE122.2%
Casey WashingtonWR20.4%
Chris BlairWR20.4%
Ross DwelleyTE10.2%
Brock BowersTE15325.9%
Jakobi MeyersWR12921.8%
Tre TuckerWR8113.7%
Alexander MattisonRB488.1%
Ameer AbdullahRB478.0%
Michael MayerTE325.4%
DJ TurnerWR294.9%
Davante AdamsWR274.6%
Harrison BryantTE122.0%
Zamir WhiteRB81.4%
Sincere McCormickRB71.2%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR61.0%
Ramel KeytonWR30.5%
Alex BachmanWR30.5%
Kristian WilkersonWR30.5%
Chris CollierRB20.3%
John ShenkerTE10.2%
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
