RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 21, 2023
Shawn Hochuli
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.2
≈ in line with the league average (11.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
97.8
≈ in line with the league average (97.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 501 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
WSH offensevsNO defense
WSH offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.20
#5Stronger
+0.04
#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
+0.03
#5Stronger
+0.04
#30
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
45%
#7Stronger
41%
#21
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#7Stronger
56%
#15
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.9%
#20slight
5.8%
#25
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.85
#7Stronger
1.00
#19
NO offensevsWSH defense
NO offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · WSH defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.08
#28
+0.07
Stronger#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
−0.02
#10Stronger
+0.01
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#28
39%
Stronger#15
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#13Stronger
64%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#15
7.2%
Stronger#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#10Stronger
1.05
#16
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
WSH offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors WSH
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:WSH scores 48% · allows 50%NO scores 39% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
WSH2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share39%
56 plays · too few games for a range
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
WSH5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed12.6
Pass share44%
32–56% · 134 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
WSH10 games
Scored10.5
Allowed14.2
Pass share55%
48–62% · 300 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.3
5.4Q1
7.3
8.9Q2
9.6scored14.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
7.2Q3
5.5
6.4Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHNO
14-6
Record
5-12
28.8
Points for / game
19.9
24.9
Points against / game
23.4
7-2 / 7-4
Home / road
3-6 / 2-6
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L L W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHNO
0.134
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.043
0.034
EPA / play allowed
0.034
239
Pass yards / game
219
149
Rush yards / game
115
213
Pass yards allowed
253
143
Rush yards allowed
141
0.8 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.5
2.7 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 2.3
20.6
First downs / game
16.4
54
Penalty yards / game
59
+8.0 · #4 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
—
2024 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
WSHNO
8-14 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-12 · 29%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), WSH 37 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3WSHseriesNO3
Avg total points
59.0
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024WSH 20 at NO 19WSH
2021NO 33 at WSH 22NO
2018WSH 19 at NO 43NO
2017WSH 31 at NO 34NO
2015NO 14 at WSH 47WSH
2012WSH 40 at NO 32WSH
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Terry McLaurinWR14022.9%
Zach ErtzTE11619.0%
Olamide ZaccheausWR7412.1%
Dyami BrownWR589.5%
Noah BrownWR569.2%
Austin EkelerRB569.2%
Brian RobinsonRB304.9%
Luke McCaffreyWR254.1%
Jamison CrowderWR182.9%
John BatesTE182.9%
Jeremy McNicholsRB122.0%
Ben SinnottTE61.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB10.2%
Brycen TremayneWR10.2%
Alvin KamaraRB8917.2%
Juwan JohnsonTE6612.8%
Chris OlaveWR448.5%
Foster MoreauTE438.3%
Rashid ShaheedWR417.9%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR356.8%
Taysom HillTE316.0%
Dante PettisWR285.4%
Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR275.2%
Mason TiptonWR265.0%
Kevin Austin Jr.WR224.3%
Jordan MimsRB183.5%
Bub MeansWR152.9%
Jamaal WilliamsRB112.1%
Kendre MillerRB81.5%
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB51.0%
Dallin HolkerTE40.8%
Adam PrenticeFB40.8%
Washington Commanders2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
