RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 14, 2023
Alex Kemp
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
13.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
105.9
≈ in line with the league average (97.2)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 507 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
MIA offensevsHOU defense
MIA offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.08
#12
−0.04
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 28 places
−0.23
#31
−0.14
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
37%
#25
36%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#16slight
60%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#17
8.0%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.12
#15
1.63
Stronger#4
HOU offensevsMIA defense
HOU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIA defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#22
+0.01
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#25
−0.10
Stronger#10
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18
37%
Stronger#6
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
48%
#28
49%
Stronger#5
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#30
5.6%
slight#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#13Stronger
0.94
#20
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
MIA offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:MIA scores 59% · allows 41%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIAHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
MIA7 games
Scored10.0
Allowed12.4
Pass share40%
29–51% · 176 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
MIA2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share45%
66 plays · too few games for a range
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
MIA8 games
Scored4.9
Allowed14.6
Pass share64%
57–72% · 188 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
MIAat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 8 (of 17)
5.4
4.6Q1
5.5
5.3Q2
10.8scored9.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
1.6
8.2Q3
5.6
5.9Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
MIAHOU
8-9
Record
11-8
20.3
Points for / game
22.0
21.4
Points against / game
21.4
5-3 / 3-6
Home / road
6-3 / 5-5
L W W L W
Last 5
L W W L L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
MIAHOU
-0.037
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.047
-0.027
EPA / play allowed
-0.084
237
Pass yards / game
236
106
Rush yards / game
117
225
Pass yards allowed
220
104
Rush yards allowed
107
0.9 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.0 / 1.9
2.5 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
3.4 / 2.9
18.3
First downs / game
17.1
54
Penalty yards / game
60
+7.8 · #5 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.9 · #33 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
MIAHOU
3-12 · 20%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-12 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), MIA 35 games, HOU 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3MIAseriesHOU3
Avg total points
46.3
Meetings
6
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (6 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024MIA 12 at HOU 20HOU
2022HOU 15 at MIA 30MIA
2021HOU 9 at MIA 17MIA
2018MIA 23 at HOU 42HOU
2015HOU 26 at MIA 44MIA
2012MIA 10 at HOU 30HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tyreek HillWR12321.7%
Jonnu SmithTE11119.5%
De'Von AchaneRB8715.3%
Jaylen WaddleWR8314.6%
Malik WashingtonWR366.3%
Raheem MostertRB234.0%
Julian HillTE193.3%
Odell Beckham Jr.WR183.2%
Durham SmytheTE173.0%
Alec IngoldFB122.1%
River CracraftWR91.6%
Jaylen WrightRB61.1%
Tanner ConnerTE40.7%
Braxton BerriosWR40.7%
Grant DuBoseWR40.7%
Robbie ChosenWR40.7%
Jeff WilsonRB30.5%
Dee EskridgeWR30.5%
Erik EzukanmaWR20.4%
Nico CollinsWR11518.9%
Dalton SchultzTE9315.3%
Tank DellWR8113.3%
Stefon DiggsWR6410.5%
Joe MixonRB579.4%
John Metchie IIIWR477.7%
Robert WoodsWR345.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWR335.4%
Dare OgunbowaleRB294.8%
Cade StoverTE264.3%
Cam AkersRB71.2%
Dameon PierceRB50.8%
Diontae JohnsonWR50.8%
Brevin JordanTE30.5%
J.J. TaylorRB30.5%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Irv SmithTE10.2%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
Miami Dolphins2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
