RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 10, 2023
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.9)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
98.9
≈ in line with the league average (97.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.5)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 480 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
BUF offensevsLAR defense
BUF offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.28
#2Stronger
+0.05
#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
+0.07
#2Stronger
−0.02
#23
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#6Stronger
40%
#18
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
70%
#2slight
48%
#4
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
2.8%
#1slight
7.8%
#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.40
#1Stronger
1.11
#14
LAR offensevsBUF defense
LAR offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · BUF defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
+0.07
#13Stronger
+0.10
#27
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 14 places
−0.07
#19
−0.13
Stronger#5
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#24slight
45%
#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
52%
#25
58%
Stronger#17
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.7%
#11Stronger
6.2%
#21
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.84
#6
1.70
slight#3
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
BUF offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors BUF
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BUF scores 48% · allows 58%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFLARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFLAR
15-5
Record
11-8
30.6
Points for / game
21.9
21.6
Points against / game
22.3
10-0 / 5-5
Home / road
6-4 / 5-4
L W W L W
Last 5
L W L W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 19–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BUFLAR
0.174
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.001
0.017
EPA / play allowed
0.015
229
Pass yards / game
244
137
Rush yards / game
103
238
Pass yards allowed
235
118
Rush yards allowed
137
0.3 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.7 / 1.4
0.9 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 2.8
19.1
First downs / game
18.1
47
Penalty yards / game
49
+11.2 · #1 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.9 · #18 of 49
2024 season to date · 19–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BUFLAR
4-5 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-13 · 35%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), BUF 39 games, LAR 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3BUFseriesLAR2
Avg total points
54.0
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024BUF 42 at LAR 44LAR
2022BUF 31 at LAR 10BUF
2020LAR 32 at BUF 35BUF
2016BUF 30 at LAR 19BUF
2012LAR 15 at BUF 12LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Khalil ShakirWR12021.0%
Dalton KincaidTE8414.7%
Keon ColemanWR6511.4%
Mack HollinsWR5810.1%
Curtis SamuelWR549.4%
James CookRB447.7%
Amari CooperWR407.0%
Dawson KnoxTE396.8%
Ty JohnsonRB295.1%
Ray DavisRB193.3%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR91.6%
Quintin MorrisTE81.4%
Zach DavidsonTE20.3%
Tyrell ShaversWR10.2%
Puka NacuaWR12921.1%
Cooper KuppWR10817.7%
Demarcus RobinsonWR7311.9%
Tutu AtwellWR6310.3%
Colby ParkinsonTE538.7%
Kyren WilliamsRB457.4%
Tyler JohnsonWR416.7%
Jordan WhittingtonWR294.7%
Tyler HigbeeTE274.4%
Davis AllenTE152.5%
Hunter LongTE111.8%
Blake CorumRB81.3%
Ronnie RiversRB61.0%
Xavier SmithWR20.3%
Cody SchraderRB10.2%
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
