RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 8, 2023
John Hussey
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.8)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
100.1
≈ in line with the league average (96.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.4)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 507 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
GB offensevsDET defense
GB offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.14
#9
−0.02
slight#7
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#9slight
−0.08
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 11 places
40%
#12
32%
Stronger#1
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.· even
58%
#12
54%
#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 27 places
4.3%
#3Stronger
5.1%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.17
#18
1.33
Stronger#12
DET offensevsGB defense
DET offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · GB defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.25
#3slight
−0.03
#5
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#3Stronger
−0.10
#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
47%
#4slight
37%
#9
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
68%
#3Stronger
57%
#16
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.5%
#8slight
7.0%
#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.11
#14
1.61
Stronger#6
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
GB offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:GB scores 48% · allows 43%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
GB5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed19.4
Pass share50%
31–70% · 157 plays
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
GB7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed10.4
Pass share60%
54–65% · 196 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
GB5 games
Scored13.8
Allowed10.8
Pass share57%
38–75% · 161 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
GBat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 5 (of 17)
2.9
2.3Q1
7.2
7.7Q2
10.2scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.5Q3
5.3
8.3Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
GBDET
11-7
Record
15-3
26.1
Points for / game
33.1
20.0
Points against / game
21.5
6-3 / 5-4
Home / road
7-3 / 8-0
L L L W W
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
GBDET
0.071
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.157
-0.050
EPA / play allowed
-0.009
231
Pass yards / game
281
145
Rush yards / game
149
227
Pass yards allowed
261
103
Rush yards allowed
103
1.1 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.7
1.3 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.1
18.3
First downs / game
23.1
51
Penalty yards / game
56
+4.0 · #15 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+9.0 · #3 of 49
2024 season to date · 18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
GBDET
9-11 · 45%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-3 · 40%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), GB 37 games, DET 38. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
15GBseriesDET13
Avg total points
46.9
Meetings
28
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. GB have won the last 2.
2025GB 31 at DET 24GB
2025DET 13 at GB 27GB
2024GB 31 at DET 34DET
2024DET 24 at GB 14DET
2023GB 29 at DET 22GB
2023DET 34 at GB 20DET
2022DET 20 at GB 16DET
2022GB 9 at DET 15DET
All 28 meetings
2021GB 30 at DET 37DET
2021DET 17 at GB 35GB
2020GB 31 at DET 24GB
2020DET 21 at GB 42GB
2019GB 23 at DET 20GB
2019DET 22 at GB 23GB
2018DET 31 at GB 0DET
2018GB 23 at DET 31DET
2017GB 11 at DET 35DET
2017DET 30 at GB 17DET
2016GB 31 at DET 24GB
2016DET 27 at GB 34GB
2015GB 27 at DET 23GB
2015DET 18 at GB 16DET
2014DET 20 at GB 30GB
2014GB 7 at DET 19DET
2013GB 10 at DET 40DET
2013DET 9 at GB 22GB
2012DET 20 at GB 27GB
2012GB 24 at DET 20GB
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Dontayvion WicksWR8216.5%
Jayden ReedWR7915.9%
Tucker KraftTE7515.1%
Romeo DoubsWR7414.9%
Christian WatsonWR5310.7%
Josh JacobsRB469.3%
Bo MeltonWR204.0%
Emanuel WilsonRB173.4%
Malik HeathWR173.4%
Chris BrooksRB163.2%
Luke MusgraveTE102.0%
Ben SimsTE51.0%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
John FitzPatrickTE10.2%
MarShawn LloydRB10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR15127.0%
Jameson WilliamsWR9517.0%
Sam LaPortaTE9016.1%
Jahmyr GibbsRB7413.2%
Tim PatrickWR488.6%
David MontgomeryRB386.8%
Kalif RaymondWR254.5%
Brock WrightTE162.9%
Allen RobinsonWR71.3%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.9%
Sione VakiRB30.5%
Isaiah WilliamsWR30.5%
Tom KennedyWR10.2%
Jermar JeffersonRB10.2%
Jared GoffQB10.2%
Shane ZylstraTE10.2%
Green Bay Packers2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
