RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 24, 2022
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
93.5
≈ in line with the league average (94.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 509 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
HOU offensevsDAL defense
HOU offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#22
+0.06
Stronger#16
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#25Stronger
+0.11
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#18
37%
Stronger#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#28slight
75%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 28 places
8.8%
#30
8.7%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.· even
1.11
#13
1.24
#13
DAL offensevsHOU defense
DAL offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 27 places
−0.10
#30
−0.04
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 24 places
−0.12
#27
−0.14
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#23
36%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#31
60%
Stronger#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#9
8.0%
Stronger#3
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.59
#28
1.63
Stronger#4
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
HOU offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
−0.01#22
+0.06#16▲
Pass success ratefavors DAL
42%#24
45%#12
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.4%#21
8.7%#22
Yards / dropback
5.8#23
6.8#27
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
8.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
47%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−1.9#27▲
+3.8#29▲
YAC / completion
4.9#27
6.1#31▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
8.8%#30
8.7%#2
Scramble rate
6.3%
5.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.1%#15▼
2.5%#10▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 33 · M 23 · R 43
L 38 · M 21 · R 42
DAL offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:HOU scores 53% · allows 49%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUDAL
11-8
Record
7-10
22.0
Points for / game
20.6
21.4
Points against / game
27.5
6-3 / 5-5
Home / road
2-7 / 5-3
L W W L L
Last 5
L L W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
HOUDAL
-0.047
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.089
-0.084
EPA / play allowed
0.080
236
Pass yards / game
241
117
Rush yards / game
100
220
Pass yards allowed
238
107
Rush yards allowed
137
1.0 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.8
3.4 / 2.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 3.0
17.1
First downs / game
17.1
60
Penalty yards / game
54
−0.9 · #33 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.9 · #38 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
HOUDAL
8-12 · 40%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), HOU 38 games, DAL 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2HOUseriesDAL3
Avg total points
46.0
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2026DAL 34 at HOU 30DAL
2024HOU 34 at DAL 10HOU
2022HOU 23 at DAL 27DAL
2018DAL 16 at HOU 19HOU
2014HOU 17 at DAL 20DAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Nico CollinsWR11518.9%
Dalton SchultzTE9315.3%
Tank DellWR8113.3%
Stefon DiggsWR6410.5%
Joe MixonRB579.4%
John Metchie IIIWR477.7%
Robert WoodsWR345.6%
Xavier HutchinsonWR335.4%
Dare OgunbowaleRB294.8%
Cade StoverTE264.3%
Cam AkersRB71.2%
Dameon PierceRB50.8%
Diontae JohnsonWR50.8%
Brevin JordanTE30.5%
J.J. TaylorRB30.5%
Jared WayneWR20.3%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Irv SmithTE10.2%
Andrew BeckFB10.2%
CeeDee LambWR15224.6%
Jake FergusonTE8613.9%
Jalen TolbertWR7912.8%
Brandin CooksWR548.7%
KaVontae TurpinWR528.4%
Rico DowdleRB497.9%
Luke SchoonmakerTE365.8%
Jalen BrooksWR304.8%
Hunter LuepkeRB162.6%
Jonathan MingoWR162.6%
Ezekiel ElliottRB152.4%
Ryan FlournoyWR142.3%
Brevyn Spann-FordTE142.3%
Deuce VaughnRB50.8%
Dalvin CookRB10.2%
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
