RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 11, 2022
John Hussey
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.6
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
98.4
≈ in line with the league average (94.4)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 512 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NYJ offensevsARI defense
NYJ offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.02
#19slight
+0.09
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#20Stronger
−0.01
#26
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
40%
#16Stronger
44%
#28
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
55%
#22
53%
Stronger#7
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#14slight
6.6%
#17
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.06
#12Stronger
0.94
#23
ARI offensevsNYJ defense
ARI offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · NYJ defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.11
#11Stronger
+0.07
#20
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
+0.00
#8Stronger
−0.04
#20
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#8Stronger
39%
#16
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#17slight
60%
#20
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.9%
#5slight
7.2%
#7
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#20Stronger
0.88
#27
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NYJ offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.02#19▼
+0.09#24
Pass success ratefavors NYJ
44%#20
49%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.8%#18
7.8%#13▲
Yards / dropback
5.8#25
6.4#21
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.8
6.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.0#28
+3.3#25▼
YAC / completionfavors NYJ
5.7#7
5.2#14
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NYJ scores 41% · allows 56%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NYJARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NYJ2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed13.5
Pass share50%
48 plays · too few games for a range
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NYJ5 games
Scored11.4
Allowed14.8
Pass share55%
42–68% · 157 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NYJ10 games
Scored9.7
Allowed10.5
Pass share61%
52–69% · 305 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NYJat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
3.2
6.4Q1
3.6
9.0Q2
6.8scored15.4allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.9Q3
6.6
6.1Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NYJARI
5-12
Record
8-9
19.9
Points for / game
23.5
23.8
Points against / game
22.3
3-5 / 2-7
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
W L L W L
Last 5
W L L W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NYJARI
-0.003
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.083
0.026
EPA / play allowed
0.061
236
Pass yards / game
227
92
Rush yards / game
144
211
Pass yards allowed
231
121
Rush yards allowed
126
0.9 / 1.2
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.5
2.4 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
1.8 / 2.4
16.7
First downs / game
19.2
67
Penalty yards / game
47
+0.9 · #24 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.9 · #12 of 49
2024 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NYJARI
5-15 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-18 · 33%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), NYJ 34 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1NYJseriesARI3
Avg total points
30.3
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). ARI have won the last 3.
2024NYJ 6 at ARI 31ARI
2020ARI 30 at NYJ 10ARI
2016NYJ 3 at ARI 28ARI
2012ARI 6 at NYJ 7NYJ
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Garrett WilsonWR15426.1%
Davante AdamsWR11419.4%
Breece HallRB7612.9%
Tyler ConklinTE7212.2%
Allen LazardWR6010.2%
Jeremy RuckertTE284.8%
Braelon AllenRB274.6%
Mike WilliamsWR213.6%
Isaiah DavisRB122.0%
Xavier GipsonWR101.7%
Kenny YeboahTE81.4%
Malachi CorleyWR61.0%
Irvin CharlesWR10.2%
Trey McBrideTE14728.1%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR11622.2%
Michael WilsonWR7113.6%
James ConnerRB5510.5%
Greg DortchWR509.6%
Elijah HigginsTE244.6%
Emari DemercadoRB203.8%
Zay JonesWR112.1%
Michael CarterRB112.1%
Tip ReimanTE71.3%
Trey BensonRB61.1%
DeeJay DallasRB30.6%
Xavier WeaverWR20.4%
New York Jets2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
