RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 18, 2022
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
92.6
≈ in line with the league average (94.4)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 496 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
TEN offensevsLAC defense
TEN offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
−0.09
#29
−0.03
Stronger#6
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
−0.16
#29
−0.12
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#21
36%
Stronger#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#24
45%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.5%
#26
7.1%
Stronger#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 23 places
1.88
#32
1.39
Stronger#9
LAC offensevsTEN defense
LAC offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TEN defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.06
#15slight
+0.07
#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.07
#17slight
−0.02
#22
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#11Stronger
41%
#22
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#20slight
63%
#24
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.7%
#23slight
5.9%
#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.67
#3Stronger
0.94
#22
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TEN offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
−0.09#29▲
−0.03#6▼
Pass success ratefavors LAC
41%#26
43%#6
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.2%#23
8.1%#18
Yards / dropbackfavors LAC
5.8#24
6.1#9
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.1
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
−0.2#22▼
−2.0#4▲
YAC / completionfavors LAC
4.8#29
4.7#2▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAC
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:TEN scores 46% · allows 58%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
TEN1 game · small sample
Scored6.0
Allowed24.0
Pass share69%
36 plays · too few games for a range
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
TEN4 games
Scored11.8
Allowed9.5
Pass share50%
38–62% · 118 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
TEN12 games
Scored8.6
Allowed10.2
Pass share68%
62–74% · 350 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
TENat the half: led 1 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 12 (of 17)
4.9
5.1Q1
2.9
10.0Q2
7.8scored15.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
6.6Q3
6.4
4.2Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TENLAC
3-14
Record
11-7
18.3
Points for / game
23.0
27.1
Points against / game
18.5
1-7 / 2-7
Home / road
5-3 / 6-4
L L L L L
Last 5
L W W W L
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
TENLAC
-0.113
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.010
0.023
EPA / play allowed
-0.067
213
Pass yards / game
230
109
Rush yards / game
107
189
Pass yards allowed
225
134
Rush yards allowed
120
1.7 / 1.2
Turnovers / takeaways
0.6 / 1.4
3.1 / 1.9
Sacks allowed / made
2.7 / 2.7
16.2
First downs / game
16.6
61
Penalty yards / game
40
+0.5 · #25 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+3.0 · #16 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TENLAC
7-18 · 28%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
1-11 · 8%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), TEN 34 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3TENseriesLAC6
Avg total points
46.4
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAC have won the last 2.
2025LAC 27 at TEN 20LAC
2024TEN 17 at LAC 27LAC
2023LAC 24 at TEN 27TEN
2022TEN 14 at LAC 17LAC
2019LAC 20 at TEN 23TEN
2018TEN 19 vs LAC 20LAC
2016TEN 35 at LAC 43LAC
2013LAC 17 at TEN 20TEN
All 9 meetings
2012TEN 10 at LAC 38LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Calvin RidleyWR12023.7%
Chig OkonkwoTE7013.8%
Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR6011.9%
Tony PollardRB5711.3%
Tyler BoydWR5711.3%
Josh WhyleTE377.3%
Tyjae SpearsRB356.9%
DeAndre HopkinsWR214.2%
Nick VannettTE204.0%
Bryce OliverWR91.8%
Treylon BurksWR81.6%
Julius ChestnutRB30.6%
Jha'Quan JacksonWR30.6%
David Martin-RobinsonTE20.4%
Tay MartinWR20.4%
Mason KinseyWR20.4%
Ladd McConkeyWR12624.3%
Quentin JohnstonWR9618.5%
Will DisslyTE6913.3%
Josh PalmerWR6512.5%
J.K. DobbinsRB397.5%
Stone SmarttTE193.7%
Derius DavisWR183.5%
Simi FehokoWR163.1%
DJ CharkWR142.7%
Hayden HurstTE132.5%
Jalen ReagorWR122.3%
Kimani VidalRB91.7%
Tucker FiskTE91.7%
Gus EdwardsRB51.0%
Hassan HaskinsRB40.8%
Eric TomlinsonTE40.8%
Tennessee Titans2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
