RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 20, 2022
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
97.1
≈ in line with the league average (93.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.2
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 542 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2024 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2024 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
IND offensevsMIN defense
IND offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · MIN defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
−0.05
#24
−0.04
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#15
−0.17
Stronger#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
38%
#19
35%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#23
58%
slight#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.6%
#10slight
6.9%
#15
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 28 places
1.71
#29
1.72
Stronger#1
MIN offensevsIND defense
MIN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.05
#17Stronger
+0.09
#23
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#21
−0.11
Stronger#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#14Stronger
45%
#30
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#21slight
62%
#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.6%
#28
5.9%
slight#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.22
#19
1.47
Stronger#7
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
IND offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−0.05#24▲
−0.04#4▲
Pass success ratefavors MIN
41%#27
44%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.7%#9
7.5%#7
Yards / dropbackfavors MIN
6.3#16
6.0#8
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
10.6
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
18%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
43%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
−4.9#32▲
−0.4#8▲
YAC / completionfavors MIN
5.0#23
4.9#5
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.6%#10
6.9%#15
Scramble rate
4.2%
3.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors MIN
3.7%#31
3.6%#2▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 20 · R 41
L 36 · M 25 · R 39
MIN offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+0.05#17▼
+0.09#23▲
Pass success ratefavors MIN
49%#9
48%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
9.9%#7▼
8.0%#17▲
Yards / dropbackfavors MIN
6.6#12
6.8#26
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.6
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors MIN
+3.4#9▼
+3.5#27▼
YAC / completionfavors IND
4.9#26
5.3#18
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
8.6%#28
5.9%#23▼
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors IND
2.2%#19▼
3.0%#3▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 22 · R 40
L 38 · M 21 · R 41
Indianapolis Colts · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:IND scores 53% · allows 51%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
INDMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
INDMIN
8-9
Record
14-4
22.2
Points for / game
24.5
25.1
Points against / game
19.9
5-3 / 3-6
Home / road
8-1 / 6-3
W L W L W
Last 5
L L W W W
2024 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
INDMIN
-0.054
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.005
0.003
EPA / play allowed
-0.082
212
Pass yards / game
257
137
Rush yards / game
109
244
Pass yards allowed
259
132
Rush yards allowed
93
1.4 / 2.0
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 2.0
1.9 / 2.1
Sacks allowed / made
3.2 / 2.8
17.1
First downs / game
18.1
40
Penalty yards / game
48
−0.7 · #32 of 49
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.2 · #22 of 49
2024 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
INDMIN
5-15 · 25%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-7 · 50%
Last two seasons (2023–2024), IND 34 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3INDseriesMIN2
Avg total points
46.2
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history). MIN have won the last 2.
2024IND 13 at MIN 21MIN
2022IND 36 at MIN 39MIN
2020MIN 11 at IND 28IND
2016IND 34 at MIN 6IND
2012MIN 20 at IND 23IND
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael PittmanWR11122.6%
Josh DownsWR10721.7%
Alec PierceWR6914.0%
Adonai MitchellWR5511.2%
Kylen GransonTE316.3%
Jonathan TaylorRB316.3%
Mo Alie-CoxTE224.5%
Trey SermonRB193.9%
Tyler GoodsonRB153.0%
Andrew OgletreeTE142.8%
Ashton DulinWR81.6%
Will MalloryTE81.6%
Anthony GouldWR10.2%
Anthony RichardsonQB10.2%
Justin JeffersonWR16229.1%
Jordan AddisonWR10719.2%
Aaron JonesRB6812.2%
T.J. HockensonTE6712.0%
Jalen NailorWR478.4%
Johnny MundtTE305.4%
Josh OliverTE295.2%
Trent SherfieldWR122.2%
Cam AkersRB112.0%
Brandon PowellWR101.8%
C.J. HamFB71.3%
Ty ChandlerRB61.1%
Myles GaskinRB10.2%
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
